房利美下修 2027 年房贷发放预测至 1.86 万亿美元 预计 30 年期利率 2027 年均值 7.5%
房利美经济与战略研究组在 10 月发布的住房展望中，下调了对 2027 年美国单户住宅房贷发放量的预测：总发放量由 9 月展望的 2.27 万亿美元下修至 1.86 万亿美元，降幅约 18%，下修主因是该机构上调了利率路径假设。
新展望预计，30 年期固定房贷利率 2026 年第四季度平均为 7.4%，2027 年四个季度平均均为 7.5%。作为对照，9 月展望曾以 8 月底 6.66% 的利率读数为起点；10 月展望改以 9 月底 7.03% 的读数为起点。
分项来看，2027 年再融资发放量由原预测的约 8,020 亿美元大幅下修至约 4,300 亿美元；购房贷款发放量预计约 1.4 万亿美元，与 2026 年大致持平。10 年期美国国债收益率预计在 2026 与 2027 年维持在 5.3% 左右。
房利美的月度经济与住房展望由其经济与战略研究组发布，是美国住房金融市场引用最广的机构预测之一。
（来源：房利美）
Fannie Mae Cuts 2027 Mortgage Origination Forecast to $1.86 Trillion, Sees 30-Year Rate Averaging 7.5%
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group cut its forecast for 2027 single-family mortgage originations in its October housing outlook, reducing the total from $2.27 trillion in the September outlook to $1.86 trillion, a decline of about 18%, after raising its interest-rate assumptions.
The new outlook expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% in every quarter of 2027. The September outlook had started from an August 31 rate reading of 6.66%, while the October outlook starts from a September 30 reading of 7.03%.
By component, 2027 refinance originations were cut from about $802 billion to roughly $430 billion, while purchase originations are forecast at about $1.4 trillion, roughly flat with 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to hold around 5.3% through 2026 and 2027.
Fannie Mae’s monthly Economic and Housing Outlook, produced by its Economic and Strategic Research Group, is among the most widely cited institutional forecasts in U.S. housing finance.
(Source: Fannie Mae)
来源：房利美
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：房利美总部大楼照片（CC BY-SA 3.0；Wikimedia Commons）/ Fannie Mae headquarters (CC BY-SA 3.0; via Wikimedia Commons)
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