美国农业部10月展望上调2026年火鸡产量至51.34亿磅：较2025年48.44亿磅增约6%，冷冻母火鸡批发价每磅184.0美分仍处高位，联邦食品安全页11月9日更新感恩节问答
华盛顿消息—美国农业部经济研究局（ERS）10月16日发布的《畜牧、乳品与禽类展望》把2026年火鸡产量预测上调3,500万磅至51.34亿磅；该报告列表显示2025年火鸡产量为48.44亿磅，2026年预测较之高约6%。含感恩节在内的2026年第四季度产量预测为13.20亿磅，高于2025年同期的12.42亿磅。报告未提及供应短缺；下一期展望定于11月17日发布，感恩节为11月26日（周四）。
价格方面，ERS 称冷冻整只母火鸡每周价格仍处高位，截至10月2日当周出价平均每磅184.0美分；2026年全年均价为175.5美分，第四季度均价预测为175美分，2025年全年均价为135.8美分。ERS 并把2026年火鸡出口预测上调2,000万磅至4.61亿磅；8月火鸡屠宰量为1,700万只、同比多4.5%，9月1日在孵火鸡蛋2,520万枚、同比多2.0%。禽流感方面，ERS 记录8月商业火鸡群两例、涉及119,300只，9月在明尼苏达、威斯康星、北达科他与南达科他四州共十一例、涉及544,900只；疾病控制与预防中心10月15日表示当前公共卫生风险为低。
联邦食品安全门户 FoodSafety.gov 的感恩节问答页11月9日更新。页面引美国农业部食品安全检验局（FSIS）口径：火鸡解冻有冷藏、冷水与微波三种方式，冷藏解冻约每5磅需24小时，冷水解冻约每磅30分钟；火鸡不得在台面或热水中解冻、室温放置不得超过两小时；不建议清洗或冲洗肉类与禽类；烤箱温度不得低于325华氏度（163摄氏度）；火鸡以食品温度计测得165华氏度（74摄氏度）为熟透标准，检测部位为胸部最厚处、大腿最内侧与翅膀最内侧。美国农业部肉类与禽类热线为1-888-674-6854，美东时间周一至周五10时至18时接听，感恩节当日8时至14时接听。
USDA's October Outlook Raises 2026 Turkey Production to 5,134 Million Pounds, About 6 Percent Above 2025's 4,844 Million, While Frozen Hen Prices Stay High at 184.0 Cents a Pound; the Federal FoodSafety.gov Thanksgiving Page Was Updated on November 9
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS), in its Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook dated October 16, raised its 2026 turkey production forecast by 35 million pounds to 5,134 million pounds. The report's table lists 2025 turkey production at 4,844 million pounds, making the 2026 forecast about 6 percent higher. Fourth-quarter 2026 production, the quarter that includes Thanksgiving, is forecast at 1,320 million pounds, against 1,242 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The report describes no supply shortage; the next outlook is due November 17, and Thanksgiving Day is Thursday, November 26.
On prices, ERS said weekly prices for frozen whole hen turkeys remain elevated, with bids averaging 184.0 cents per pound in the week ending October 2; the 2026 annual average is 175.5 cents per pound, the fourth-quarter average is forecast at 175 cents, and the 2025 annual average was 135.8 cents. ERS also raised its 2026 turkey export forecast by 20 million pounds to 461 million pounds. August turkey slaughter was 17.0 million head, 4.5 percent more than August 2025, and turkey eggs in incubators on September 1 totaled 25.2 million, up 2.0 percent. On avian influenza, ERS recorded two commercial turkey cases in August affecting 119,300 birds and eleven cases in September across Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota affecting 544,900 birds; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on October 15 that the current public health risk is low.
The federal FoodSafety.gov Thanksgiving page was updated on November 9. Citing the USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the page states that a turkey may be thawed in the refrigerator, in cold water or in a microwave — about 24 hours for every five pounds in the refrigerator and about 30 minutes per pound in cold water — that a turkey should never be thawed on the counter or in hot water or left at room temperature for more than two hours, that washing or rinsing meat and poultry is not recommended, that an oven should not be set lower than 325°F (163°C), and that a turkey is ready at a minimum internal temperature of 165°F (74°C) measured with a food thermometer in the thickest part of the breast, the innermost thigh and the innermost wing. The USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline is 1-888-674-6854, staffed 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern, Monday through Friday, and 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Eastern on Thanksgiving Day.
来源链接：联邦食品安全门户感恩节问答（foodsafety.gov，2026-11-09 更新）： https://www.foodsafety.gov/blog/thanksgiving-day-will-be-here-soon-and-its-time-get-ready ；美国农业部 ERS《畜牧、乳品与禽类展望》2026年10月期数据（经 USDA 数据汇编页转录）： https://www.preparedstates.com/guides/thanksgiving-food-shortages
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