全美房地产经纪人协会11月6日展望：人口较2000年增加6900万至3.5亿，现房年销量却运行在近400万套、低于2000年的520万套
路易斯安那州新奥尔良—全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 11月6日在该协会 NAR NXT 大会的住宅经济议题与趋势论坛上发布经济与住房展望。他表示，一旦住房供应与负担能力改善、消费者信心回升，美国住房市场有大量潜在需求可以释放。
Yun 以2000年作对照：自2000年以来，美国人口已由2.81亿增至3.5亿，非农就业由1.32亿增至1.59亿，住房财富由7万亿美元增至35万亿美元；但现房销售今年运行在近400万套的水平，低于2000年售出的520万套。他说：「负担能力确实吃紧，但人们的收入在上升，如果房贷利率能降下来，想想会有多少潜在住房需求被释放到市场里。」
供应方面，Yun 指出，随着销售放缓，库存已经上升，按月供应量处于2015年以来最高水平；9月房屋从挂牌到签约的中位时间为33天。他同时表示，消费者信心回升也是关键—当前消费者情绪约为2000年水平的一半，甚至低于大衰退时期。
同场发布的2026年《购房者与售房者概况》要点由 NAR 副首席经济学家 Jessica Lautz 介绍：首次购房者占全部购房者的22%，接近历史低点；首次购房者的年龄中位数维持在40岁的历史高位。售房者在出售前持有房屋的年限中位数为12年，为有记录以来最长。Lautz 表示，低利率房贷的「金手铐」效应确实存在，人们持有房产的时间更长了。经纪服务使用方面，90%的购房者通过经纪人购房，为四十年来最高占比；92%的售房者使用经纪人，创历史纪录。
In New Orleans, Louisiana, National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun delivered his economic and housing outlook on November 6 during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends For
Yun compared today's economy with the year 2000. Since then, the U.S. population has grown from 281 million to 350 million, and payroll jobs have risen from 132 million to 159 million. Housing wealth has grown from $7 trillion to $35 trillion. Yet existing-home sales are running near 4 million this year, below the 5.2 million homes sold in 2000. "Affordability is tough, but people's incomes are rising, and if somehow mortgage rates go down, think about the potential housing demand that could be released to the marketplace," Yun said.
On supply, Yun noted that inventory has risen as sales have slowed, months' supply is at its highest level since 2015, and the median home took 33 days to go from listing to contract in September. He added that a rebound in consumer confidence would also be key: consumer sentiment has fallen to roughly half its 2000 level and is now worse than during the Great Recession, even as the economy has added jobs.
Jessica Lautz, NAR's deputy chief economist and vice president of research, presented highlights from the newly released 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. First-time buyers made up 22% of all buyers, near the historic low, and the median age of first-time buyers held at a record-high 40. Sellers stayed in their homes for a median of 12 years before selling, the longest on record. "The golden handcuffs of low interest rate mortgages is true. People are holding on to those properties for longer periods of time," Lautz said. Use of real estate professionals remained strong: 90% of buyers purchased through an agent, the highest share in four decades, and a record 92% of sellers used an agent.
来源：全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）新闻稿（行业协会，2026年11月6日） https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-yun-significant-pent-up-housing-demand-could-be-released-as-supply-affordability-and-confidence
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来源：全美房地产经纪人协会
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：美国住宅区（资料图）。（Wikimedia Commons）|A U.S. residential neighborhood (file photo). (Wikimedia Commons)
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