里士满联储行长Tom Barkin：需求健康、通胀顽固 货币政策宜谨慎行事
Greer — 里士满联邦储备银行行长 Tom Barkin 11月9日在南卡罗来纳州 Greer 市政厅向 Greater Greer 商会发表题为《推动经济的那些房间》的预备演讲。他说，美国经济的决定不是在华盛顿一间会议室里做出的，而是在全国各地的董事会会议室、家庭厨房与机场休息室里做出的；需求保持健康、通胀顽固偏高，货币政策的方向相对明确，但鉴于需求前景的风险很容易设想，政策行事宜谨慎。
企业一端，Barkin 说，今年企业盈利表现抢眼：标普500成分股第二季度每股收益中位数增长15%，整体盈利增长31%，第三季度盈利大致延续这一势头；第三季度企业投资增长12.7%，超级智能（SI）建设与国防是重要部分，银行界反映贷款需求已超出 SI 建设范围。盈利强劲的企业不愿裁员，首次申领失业救济人数处于55年多来的低位。但他同时指出，企业正普遍报告成本压力，医疗保险、汽柴油、卡车与海运运费、商务旅行、存储芯片、利率与关税都在涨，企业开始把此前自行吸收的成本转嫁到价格上。
家庭一端，他说，密歇根大学消费者信心指数今年录得有记录以来最低的五个月，通胀已连续五年多高于美联储2%的目标，9月个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）同比上涨3.6%、核心涨幅3.1%。但居民仍在消费：过去六个月，不含食品与能源的名义消费以年率6.9%的速度增长；10月失业率为4.1%，失业率不高于4.5%的连续月份数创有记录以来最长。高收入消费者占总消费的比重大、对价格不敏感，四成以上高收入消费者预计未来一年对大幅涨价的商品照常消费，这一比例是低收入消费者的两倍多。
Barkin 说，强劲需求叠加普遍的成本上涨，给价格带来上行压力，企业反映这种压力仍在持续；在经济保持当前轨道的前提下，美联储双重使命中风险偏向通胀一侧。他同时提醒，超级智能（SI）的前景是关键变量：若 SI 不及预期，企业投资、股价与资产驱动的消费都可能回落；若 SI 超预期并替代更多劳动者，就业一侧的风险又会上升。他的结论是，当前政策方向相对明确，但正因需求风险容易设想，行事应当谨慎。Barkin 现为联邦公开市场委员会成员，将于2027年获得轮值投票权。
（来源：里士满联邦储备银行）
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin: With Demand Healthy and Inflation Stubborn, Policy Should Move With Care
GREER, S.C. — Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin delivered prepared remarks titled "The Rooms Driving the Economy" to the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce at Greer City Hall in South Carolina on November 9. He said economic decisions are made not in a single meeting room in Washington but in boardrooms, kitchens and airport lounges across the country, and that with demand healthy and inflation stubbornly elevated, the direction of monetary policy is relatively straightforward, though policy should move with care given risks to the demand outlook.
On business, Barkin said earnings this year have been remarkable: median S&P 500 earnings grew 15 percent in the second quarter and aggregate earnings grew 31 percent, with third-quarter results coming in comparably, while business investment rose 12.7 percent in the third quarter, driven in part by super intelligence (SI) buildout and defense, with bankers reporting loan demand extending beyond SI. Healthy firms are reluctant to lay off workers, and initial unemployment claims sit at more than 55-year lows. But he noted broad-based cost pressures, from health insurance, gas and diesel to trucking, ocean freight, business travel, memory chips, interest rates and tariffs, and said firms are starting to pass on increases they had absorbed.
On households, he said the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index recorded its five lowest months ever this year, inflation has run above the Fed's 2 percent target for over five years, and September PCE inflation came in at 3.6 percent headline and 3.1 percent core. Yet nominal consumption excluding food and energy has grown at a 6.9 percent annualized rate over the last six months, October unemployment was 4.1 percent, extending the longest recorded streak at or below 4.5 percent, and more than 40 percent of upper-income consumers expect to spend as usual on items with large price increases, more than double the share of lower-income consumers.
Barkin said resilient demand paired with broad cost increases has put upward pressure on prices, and that if the economy stays on its current path, the risk lies on the inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate. He flagged the path of SI as a key two-sided risk: underdelivery could pull back investment, stock prices and asset-fueled spending, while overdelivery could displace more workers than expected. Barkin serves on the Federal Open Market Committee and becomes a voting member in 2027.
(Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
来源：里士满联邦储备银行
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美国联邦储备委员会总部大楼（GSM 固定图库）。 / Photo: Federal Reserve Board headquarters (GSM asset library).
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