10月地方市场早期数据：成屋销量同比跌15.2% NAR正式数据11月13日公布
美国房地产分析平台 Calculated Risk 11 月 6 日发布的早期数据显示，10 月美国地方住房市场成屋销量同比大幅下滑：在已公布数据的早期报告市场中，10 月销量同比下降 15.2%（未经季节调整）；同一批市场 9 月的同比降幅为 4.0%。新挂牌房源数量同比下降 6.5%。
该平台指出，10 月的同比数据受到工作日数量的影响：2026 年 10 月有 21 个工作日，2025 年 10 月为 22 个，因此经季节调整后的全国 headline 数据跌幅将小于未经调整的地方数据。该平台同时提醒，这只是一小部分早期报告市场的数据样本。
按该平台的统计，美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）将于 11 月 13 日星期四公布 10 月成屋销售数据，市场预期为年化 387 万套，低于 9 月的 399 万套；2025 年 10 月为年化 411 万套。若预期成立，10 月成屋销售将创下本轮周期新低。
该平台的分析还指出，10 月成交的销售大多对应 8 月与 9 月签订的合同。据该文引用的数据，8 月与 9 月签约时的按揭利率均值分别为 6.67% 与 6.86%。该平台认为，10 月按揭利率大幅走高将对 11 月的销售产生负面影响。
Early October Local Data: Existing-Home Sales Down 15.2% Year Over Year; NAR Report Due Nov. 13
Early data from local U.S. housing markets show existing-home sales fell sharply in October, according to an analysis published November 6 by the housing-data platform Calculated Risk. In the early reporting markets, October sales were down 15.2% year over year, not seasonally adjusted; in September, the same markets were down 4.0% year over year. New listings were down 6.5% year over year.
The platform noted that the year-over-year figures were affected by the calendar: there was one fewer working day in October 2026 (21) than in October 2025 (22), so the decline in the seasonally adjusted national headline data will not be as negative as the unadjusted local figures suggest. It also cautioned that the figures cover only a small sample of early reporting markets.
The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release October existing-home sales on Thursday, November 13. The consensus is for 3.87 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from 3.99 million in September; October 2025 came in at 4.11 million. If the consensus holds, October sales would be at a new cycle low.
The analysis added that October sales were mostly for contracts signed in August and September, when mortgage rates averaged 6.67% in August and 6.86% in September, according to the figures cited in the post. It said sales in November will be negatively affected by the much higher mortgage rates in October.
来源：Calculated Risk
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美国住房和城市发展部大楼（GSM 固定图库）。The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development building. (GSM asset library)
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
