全美零售联合会预测：今年假日季销售额将首破1万亿美元，同比增长4.2%
全美零售联合会（NRF）发布2026年假日季销售预测：今年11月1日至12月31日，全美零售销售额预计同比增长4.2%，达到1.013万亿美元，历史上首次突破1万亿美元。去年假日季销售额为9720亿美元，同比增长3.1%。
据联合会介绍，这项预测基于消费者支出、可支配收入、就业、工资与通胀等多项经济指标建模，统计口径不含汽车经销商、加油站与餐馆。联合会首席经济学家马克·马修斯（Mark Mathews）表示，4.2%的增速高于过去20年3.1%的平均水平（疫情年份除外）；增幅中约一半来自价格上涨，其余来自实际消费量的增长。
在用工方面，联合会预计零售商今年假日季将雇佣32.5万至37.5万名季节性员工，与去年估计的约35.6万人大体持平，显示商家在增聘上趋于谨慎。联合会同时指出，汽油价格、通胀、利率与消费者债务水平是预测面临的主要风险。
联合会总裁兼首席执行官马修·谢伊（Matthew Shay）表示，美国消费者保持着韧性，预计这一消费模式将延续整个2026年冬季假日季。假日季销售额约占全美零售业年销售额的19%，对部分零售商的占比更高。（来源：全美零售联合会）
NRF Forecasts Holiday Sales to Top $1 Trillion for the First Time, Up 4.2%
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its 2026 holiday sales forecast: retail sales from November 1 through December 31 are expected to grow 4.2% over 2025, to $1.013 trillion, passing $1 trillion for the first time. Holiday sales in 2025 totaled $972 billion, up 3.1%.
The federation says the forecast is built from economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages and inflation, and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Chief Economist Mark Mathews notes that the 4.2% pace is above the 20-year average of 3.1%, excluding the outsize pandemic years; nearly half of the increase is expected to come from higher prices, with the rest from real spending growth.
On hiring, the NRF expects retailers to bring on 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, close to last year’s estimated 356,000 — a cautious pace. The federation flags higher gas prices, persistent inflation, interest rates and consumer debt as the main risks to the outlook.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay says American consumers remain resilient and that the pattern is expected to continue through the 2026 winter holidays. Holiday sales account for about 19% of the U.S. retail industry’s annual sales, and more for some retailers. (Source: National Retail Federation)
来源：全美零售联合会
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于纽约先驱广场的梅西百货旗舰店。CC BY 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Macy’s Herald Square flagship store in New York. CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
