Visa预测美国假日零售销售增长4.5%：2021年以来最强 人均礼物预算777美元
Visa旗下Visa商业与经济洞察（VBEI）11月5日发布2026年美国假日消费展望，预测今年11月至12月美国假日零售销售同比增长4.5%，为2021年以来最强的假日季销售增速。
报告预计，今年假日相关商品价格将上涨约3.4%，经通胀调整后的假日消费实际增长1.1%。Visa称，收入稳步增长与家庭财富水平继续支撑消费者的支出能力与意愿，尽管通胀仍在影响假日预算的去向。
消费者计划的人均假日礼物支出为777美元，高于2025年的736美元，增幅5.6%。与此同时，消费者对价格依然敏感：年收入低于10万美元的受访者中，约三分之一表示今年选购假日礼物时会改用更便宜的品牌或商店。
Visa美国首席经济学家Michael Brown表示：「消费者带着支出能力和意愿进入假日季，只是对钱花在哪里更加斟酌。收入增长继续为消费提供重要基础，尽管价格上涨仍是背景之一，我们预计这将又是一个健康的假日季。」他还说：「消费者仍在花钱，但会对假日预算的去向作出有意识的选择——健康的支出与持续注重性价比的结合，很可能定义这个假日季。」
报告还发现，超过半数受访者把旅行和现场活动列在假日愿望清单前列，但真正优先为体验消费的只有15%，优先购买实物礼物的占27%。VBEI对匿名Visa信用卡交易数据的分析显示，旅行成本上升正在改变预算分配：年收入20万美元以上的家庭是9月唯一同时增加假日机票预订量与支出的群体，预订量同比增长29%、支出增长38%，而较低收入群体则大幅缩减了机票预订与支出。
VBEI的假日销售口径聚焦零售、不含旅行与餐饮，因此原本可能用于假日旅行的预算，有望更多流向实物礼物等商品消费。报告同时提示，这份展望属于前瞻性判断，实际结果可能因经济与市场变化而不同。
（来源：Visa）
Visa Forecasts U.S. Holiday Retail Sales to Rise 4.5%, Strongest Since 2021, With Average Gift Spending of $777
Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) on November 5 released its 2026 U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook, forecasting that U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% year over year in November and December, the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021.
The outlook expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise approximately 3.4%, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending increasing 1.1%. Visa said solid income growth and household wealth continue to support consumers' capacity and willingness to spend, even as inflation influences where holiday dollars go.
Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, an increase of 5.6%. At the same time, shoppers remain value-conscious: roughly one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 say they plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts compared with last year.
"Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they're being thoughtful about where those dollars go," said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. "Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season." He added: "Consumers are still spending, but they're making deliberate choices about where their holiday dollars go. That combination of healthy spending and continued focus on value is likely to define this holiday season."
The report also found that more than half of survey respondents put travel and live events at the top of their holiday wish lists, yet only 15% say they are prioritizing spending on experiences, compared with 27% prioritizing physical gifts. VBEI analysis of anonymized Visa credit card transactions found that higher travel costs are contributing to that disconnect: households earning more than $200,000 were the only income group to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, with trips booked up 29% and spending up 38% from a year earlier, while lower-income groups pulled back sharply.
Because VBEI's holiday sales measure focuses on retail and excludes travel and dining, dollars that might otherwise have gone toward holiday trips could instead flow toward physical gifts and other merchandise, the report said. Visa noted the outlook contains forward-looking statements and actual results could differ.
(Source: Visa)
来源：Visa
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：Visa总部大楼（2025年8月摄）。Sarah Stierch 摄，CC0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Visa headquarters (August 2025). Photo by Sarah Stierch, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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