南非市政选举11月4日投票：2920万人登记，执政党非国大面临跌破四成考验
南非约翰内斯堡消息，南非 11 月 4 日举行市政选举，投票站于当地时间 7 时开放、21 时关闭。这是南非 2021 年以来首次市政选举，也是前总统雅各布·祖马领导的“民族之矛”党首次参加地方选举，被普遍视为对执政党非洲人国民大会（非国大）支持率的一次检验。
南非选举委员会称，本次选举创纪录地有 2,920 万人登记投票，投票站共 23,696 个，11 月 3 日与 4 日投票日前已有逾 140 万张特别选票提前投出。选民将选出 8 个大都会市、44 个区议会与 205 个地方议会的议员，议会随后选出市长；选民投两张票，一张选选区议员，一张选政党。最终结果预计于 11 月 8 日星期日公布，议会须在结果公布后两周内组建议会并选出市长。
非国大自 1994 年结束种族隔离以来长期执政，但支持率持续下滑：2021 年市政选举中该党首次跌破五成，2024 年全国选举中又失去议会多数，被迫与民主联盟等政党组成民族团结政府。本次选前民调显示，非国大全国支持率可能跌破四成，一项益普索民调甚至将其支持率定为三成。选战议题集中于供水中断、停电、基础设施破败、失业、犯罪、腐败与可负担住房短缺；审计长报告显示，2024 至 2025 财年全国 257 个市镇中仅 39 个获得最高标准的“清洁审计”。
约翰内斯堡是本次选举的最大看点。该市为南非商业中心，由脆弱的非国大主导联盟执政，4 年内已换 5 任市长；民主联盟提名 75 岁的前全国领袖海伦·齐勒角逐市长，一项 News24 民调将其支持率定为 36%，即使领先也需联合执政。在德班所在的 eThekwini 大都会市，祖马的“民族之矛”党民调超过四成，而非国大在该市的支持率民调仅约一成，远低于 2021 年的 42%。民主联盟则有望在开普敦保住多数，但得票率预计低于 2021 年的 58%。总统西里尔·拉马福萨按计划在约翰内斯堡海德公园高中投票。本稿所引均为选前民调与选举安排，不是计票结果。
South Africa Votes in Municipal Elections on November 4: Record 29.2 Million Registered as Ruling ANC Faces Test of Falling Below 40 Percent
JOHANNESBURG — South Africans voted on November 4 in municipal elections, with polling stations open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time. It is the country's first municipal election since 2021 and the first local election contested by former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, and it is widely seen as a test of support for the governing African National Congress (ANC).
The Electoral Commission of South Africa said a record 29.2 million people were registered to vote at 23,696 voting stations, and more than 1.4 million special votes had already been cast on Monday and Tuesday. Voters are choosing councils for eight metropolitan municipalities, 44 district councils and 205 local councils, and those councils will then elect mayors; each voter casts two ballots, one for a ward councillor and one for a party. Final results are expected on Sunday, November 8, and councils must then form and elect mayors within two weeks of the announcement.
The ANC has governed since the end of apartheid in 1994, but its support has declined steadily: it fell below 50 percent for the first time in the 2021 municipal elections and lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 national election, forcing it into a government of national unity with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and other parties. Pre-election polls suggest ANC support could fall below 40 percent this time, with one Ipsos poll putting it at 30 percent. The campaign has been dominated by water outages, power cuts, crumbling infrastructure, unemployment, crime, corruption and a shortage of affordable housing; an auditor-general report awarded clean audits, the highest standard of financial management, to only 39 of South Africa's 257 municipalities for the 2024/25 financial year.
Johannesburg, the country's commercial centre, is the biggest prize. Run by a fragile ANC-led coalition, it has had five mayors in four years; the DA has nominated its 75-year-old former national leader Helen Zille, and a News24 poll put her support at 36 percent, which would leave her needing coalition partners even if she leads. In the eThekwini metro, which contains Durban, Zuma's MK party is polling above 40 percent, while the ANC is polling around 10 percent there, far below its 42 percent in 2021. The DA looks set to retain its majority in Cape Town, though probably with less than the 58 percent it won in 2021. President Cyril Ramaphosa was due to vote at Hyde Park High School in Johannesburg. All figures cited here are pre-election polls and electoral arrangements, not vote counts.
来源：南非选举委员会
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图片来源：南非选民在投票站排队（资料图），摄影 Leo za1，CC BY-SA 3.0（Wikimedia Commons）
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