CDC发布2026-27呼吸道疾病季展望：三种病毒合并住院峰值预计与上季相近，流感季中等严重
美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）发布的2026-27呼吸道疾病季展望预计，今秋到明春（10月至5月），新冠、流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）三种疾病造成的合并住院峰值将与上一个呼吸道季相近，落在上季峰值的正负20%以内，置信度为低至中等。CDC在10月中旬更新了这份展望，并于10月29日再次推送；该机构强调，展望是对季节走向的高层评估，不是预报。
分病种看，流感预计为中等严重程度季，置信度低至中等。早期监测已经动起来：CDC的FluView报告显示，截至10月10日的一周，临床实验室流感检测阳性率为5.0%，高于前一周的3.9%，西海岸活动最高；公共卫生实验室分型的甲型流感病毒中，96.4%为A(H1N1)pdm09，抗原检测显示流行的H1N1病毒与本季疫苗株匹配良好。CDC说，流感季早期活动高于往年同期水平，但仍在预期的季节性波动范围内。
新冠方面，若不出现具有中等免疫逃逸能力的新变异株，峰值周住院率预计为每10万人1.4至2.5例，时间在1月上中旬，与上季相近或略低；若这类变异株出现，峰值可能升至每10万人2.8至6.7例，推迟到1月下旬。RSV的峰值住院率预计同样在上季正负20%以内，置信度中等；值得注意的是，上季RSV住院高峰异常地晚，出现在2026年2月21日当周，CDC表示这可能预示本季高峰也会偏晚。
接种建议方面，CDC建议6个月以上的所有人接种流感疫苗；RSV疫苗建议75岁以上所有老年人接种一剂（终生一次），50至74岁且有高风险状况的成年人也应接种一剂。CDC同时提醒，若出现更能逃避免疫的新病毒、更严重的毒株，或疫苗接种率与有效性低于上季，合并住院峰值也可能高于预期，展望会随疫情轨迹变化而更新。
CDC 2026-27 Respiratory Season Outlook: Combined COVID, Flu and RSV Hospitalization Peak Expected Near Last Season's Level
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects the combined peak in hospitalizations from COVID-19, influenza and RSV in the 2026-2027 fall and winter respiratory disease season to be similar to last season's, within 20 percent of the 2025-2026 peak, with low to moderate confidence, according to its 2026-2027 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook. The CDC updated the outlook in mid-October and promoted it again on October 29, stressing that the assessment, covering the October-through-May season, offers a high-level baseline for how the season could unfold and is not a forecast.
For influenza, the CDC expects a season of moderate severity across all ages, with low to moderate confidence. Early surveillance is already moving: the CDC's FluView report for the week ending October 10 put clinical laboratory test positivity for influenza at 5.0 percent, up from 3.9 percent the week before, with the highest activity on the West Coast. Of the influenza A viruses subtyped by public health laboratories, 96.4 percent were A(H1N1)pdm09, and antigenic testing found the circulating H1N1 viruses well matched to this season's vaccine strain. The CDC characterizes overall activity as low, higher than typical for this point in the season but within expected seasonal variation.
For COVID-19, scenario modeling indicates that if no variant with moderate immune-escape properties emerges, the peak weekly hospitalization rate will be 1.4 to 2.5 per 100,000 people in early to mid-January, similar to or lower than last season. If such a variant does emerge, the peak could rise to 2.8 to 6.7 per 100,000 in late January 2027. For RSV, the peak weekly hospitalization rate is expected to land within 20 percent of last season's, with moderate confidence; last season's RSV peak came unusually late, in the week ending February 21, 2026, which the CDC says may signal another late peak this season.
On immunization, the CDC recommends an annual flu vaccine for everyone 6 months and older. For RSV, it recommends a single lifetime dose of RSV vaccine for all adults aged 75 and older, and for adults aged 50 to 74 who are at increased risk of severe RSV disease. The agency cautions that a new immune-evading variant, more severe strains, or lower vaccine uptake or effectiveness than last season could push the combined peak higher, and says it will update the outlook as disease trajectories change.
CDC 2026-2027 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：甲型H1N1流感病毒电镜图（资料图）。NIH Image Gallery 提供，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Influenza A (H1N1) virus under electron microscopy (file photo). Image: NIH Image Gallery, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
