澳大利亚：储备银行以六比三票加息至4.85% 创18年新高为今年第五次加息
澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）货币政策委员会11月3日以六票赞成、三票反对，通过将现金利率目标上调25个基点至4.85%，自11月4日起生效。这是澳大利亚今年第五次加息，现金利率升至2008年以来最高水平；三名委员主张维持4.60%不变。
委员会在会后声明中说，自上次会议以来，数据证实潜在通胀仍然广泛存在，产能压力比先前估计略紧，燃油价格上涨正传导到其他商品与服务价格。通胀现预计在未来一年保持在3%以上，通胀预期固化的风险正在上升。更新后的工作人员预测把通胀前景大幅上调：总体通胀预计在2026年底达到4.5%的峰值，通胀要到2027年底才回到2%至3%目标区间的上沿，比先前预测晚约三个季度。
委员会表示，鉴于修订后的通胀前景与持续的上行风险，进一步收紧金融条件是恰当的，以支持通胀回归目标；委员会将继续做其认为必要的事情，使通胀可持续地回到目标，并将密切关注数据与风险评估的变化。总裁 Michele Bullock 在会后记者会上说，高通胀对低收入者打击尤其沉重，这正是压低通胀重要的原因；她表示下一步利率走向尚不明朗。
Australia: Reserve Bank Raises Cash Rate to 4.85 Percent in 6-3 Vote, an 18-Year High and Fifth Hike of 2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board voted six to three on November 3 to raise the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent, effective November 4. It is the RBA's fifth rate increase of 2026 and takes the cash rate to its highest level since 2008; three members voted to leave it unchanged at 4.60 percent.
In its post-meeting statement, the Board said data since the previous meeting have confirmed that underlying inflation remains broadly based, capacity pressures appear a little tighter than previously estimated, and higher fuel prices are being passed through to prices of other goods and services. Inflation is now expected to remain above 3 percent for the coming year, with an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded. Updated staff forecasts, published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy, show headline inflation peaking at 4.5 percent at the end of 2026 and not reaching the top of the 2 to 3 percent target range until late 2027, about three quarters later than previously forecast.
Given the revised outlook and continuing upside risks, the Board judged a further tightening warranted to support the return of inflation to target, and said it will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target while remaining attentive to the data. Governor Michele Bullock told a press conference that high inflation is particularly painful for those on low incomes, which is why getting it down matters, and that the next move in rates is unclear.
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图片来源：照片：澳大利亚储备银行大楼（悉尼），Danausi 摄，Wikimedia Commons，公共领域 / Photo: Reserve Bank of Australia building in Sydney, by Danausi, Wikimedia Commons, public domain
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