旧金山联储研究：本轮厄尔尼诺或已推高美国价格水平约0.3个百分点、2027年通胀面临上行风险
旧金山联邦储备银行11月2日发表的《经济信札》（Economic Letter）研究估计，正在发生的本轮厄尔尼诺现象可能已经使美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格水平在今年4月至7月间比常态高出约0.3个百分点；这一初始冲击预计在今年年底前消退，但若厄尔尼诺在明年转为拉尼娜，2027年的PCE通胀率可能因此额外上升约1个百分点。
研究由旧金山联储经济学家 Molly Ardren、Tobin Graf 与 Brigitte Roth Tran 撰写，依据 Roth Tran 同期发表的第2026-21号工作论文。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）已将本轮厄尔尼诺列为「非常强」级别；自1950年代以来有记录的22次厄尔尼诺事件中，仅4次达到这一级别，世界气象组织此前预计本轮事件可能带来破纪录的海洋温度上升。
研究的历史分析显示，厄尔尼诺推高价格的作用主要经由食品与核心服务价格传导；就业方面，非农就业在厄尔尼诺第一年变化不大，但通常在第二年明显扩张、失业率相应下降，即本轮事件的就业提振效应可能出现在2027年。
作者同时强调，由于历史样本有限、且本轮强度可能超过历史峰值，估算的不确定性相当大；上述结论「并非预测」，而是指向明年美国通胀面临显著上行风险，为正密切关注通胀走势的美联储增添了一个额外变量。
（来源：旧金山联邦储备银行）
San Francisco Fed Study: El Niño May Have Lifted U.S. Prices by 0.3 Point, Posing Inflation Risk for 2027
An Economic Letter published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on November 2 estimates that the current El Niño episode may already have raised the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price level by about 0.3 percentage point between April and July of this year. The researchers expect that initial effect to fade by the end of 2026, but warn that if El Niño transitions into La Niña next year, renewed price pressures could add as much as 1 percentage point to PCE inflation over the course of 2027.
The study, by San Francisco Fed researchers Molly Ardren, Tobin Graf and Brigitte Roth Tran, is based on Roth Tran's Working Paper 2026-21. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently classifies this El Niño as "very strong"; of the 22 El Niño events recorded since the 1950s, only four reached that category, and the World Meteorological Organization has projected that this episode could produce a record rise in ocean temperatures.
The historical analysis finds that El Niño's price effects run mainly through food and core services prices. On employment, nonfarm payrolls change little in the first year of an El Niño but tend to grow markedly in the second year, with unemployment falling — suggesting any jobs boost from this episode would arrive in 2027.
The authors stress that the findings carry substantial uncertainty, given the small historical sample and the possibility that this episode exceeds past peaks. The results, they write, are not a forecast but point to a meaningful upside risk to U.S. inflation next year, adding one more variable for a Federal Reserve already focused on inflation.
(Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
来源：旧金山联邦储备银行
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：旧金山联邦储备银行大楼。照片 CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco building. CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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