疾控中心把呼吸道疾病流行趋势估算下沉到地方：新冠、流感与RSV可查卫生服务区一级
美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）11月2日公布，其流行趋势估算（Rt）已扩展到卫生服务区（Health Service Area）一级。秋冬呼吸道疾病季来临前，公众与地方卫生部门可按周查看本地新冠、流感与呼吸合胞病毒（RSV）三种疾病的传播是在上升、下降还是持平，颗粒度细到社区所在的卫生服务区。
Rt 是随时间变化的有效再生数，用来衡量一种疾病当下的传播速度。CDC 下属预测与疫情分析中心（CFA）按周发布这一估算，层级包括全国、州与卫生服务区，病种为新冠、流感与 RSV，其中流感与 RSV 按季节提供。CDC 新上线的互动可视化页面把卫生服务区一级的估算呈现出来，供公共卫生人员、医疗系统与一线响应者用于态势感知、准备工作与资源规划。
CDC 表示，与传统的监测方法相比，Rt 估算在州一级可以提前 2 至 3 周侦测到疫情高峰，在卫生服务区一级可以提前最多 1.5 周。这一估算由各州与地方合作伙伴共享的数据与 CDC 的分析共同支撑，基础数据来自急诊就诊报告。
CDC 的呼吸道疾病数据频道同时汇总本地病毒活动水平、废水检测、急诊就诊与检测阳性率等指标。CDC 本季早些时候发布的呼吸道疾病季展望预计，本季新冠、流感与 RSV 合并住院高峰与上一季大致相当。
CDC Expands Respiratory Illness Trend Estimates to the Local Level: COVID-19, Flu and RSV Now Tracked by Health Service Area
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced on November 2 that its epidemic trend estimates, known as Rt, have been expanded to the health service area (HSA) level. Ahead of the fall and winter respiratory season, the public and local health departments can now check, week by week, whether COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are growing, declining or staying the same in their own health service area.
Rt is the time-varying reproductive number, a data-driven measure of how fast a disease is spreading at a given moment. CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA) provides the estimates weekly at the national, state and health service area levels, for COVID-19, influenza and RSV, with flu and RSV available seasonally. New interactive visualizations present the HSA-level estimates to help public health practitioners, health care systems and frontline responders with situational awareness, preparedness and resource planning.
Compared with surveillance-based methods, CDC said, Rt estimates can detect outbreak peaks 2 to 3 weeks faster at the state level and up to 1.5 weeks faster at the HSA level. The estimates are powered by data shared by state and local partners and by CDC analytics, based on emergency department visit data.
CDC's Respiratory Illnesses Data Channel also brings together local virus activity levels, wastewater testing, emergency department visits and test positivity. In its respiratory disease season outlook released earlier this season, CDC said it expects this season's combined peak hospitalizations from COVID-19, flu and RSV to be similar to last season's peak.
来源：美国疾病控制与预防中心
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于 Atlanta 的美国疾病控制与预防中心总部大楼（资料图）。 / Photo: The headquarters of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta (file photo).
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