泰国：泰国银行维持利率1%并上调增长预测 今年经济料增2.4%
泰国银行货币政策委员会10月28日一致决定把政策利率维持在1%，并上调经济增长预测：预计泰国经济2026年增长2.4%、2027年增长2.1%，高于6月时预测的2.3%与1.8%。泰国银行近日公布的评估显示，上调主要来自强于预期的科技类出口与私人投资。
委员会预计，商品出口额2026年增长22%、2027年增长15%，私人投资2026年增长13%、2027年放缓至7.6%。9月商品出口同比增长24%，电子产品受益于全球超级智能（SI）投资周期；进口则因燃料与资本货物需求增长50.4%。总体通胀预计2026年平均为2.1%、2027年为1.3%。
泰国银行同时警告，增长仍低于经济潜能，收益集中在与科技相关的少数企业与劳动者身上。面向国内消费者的企业继续面对需求疲软、竞争激烈与结构性制约：家庭消费2026年预计仅增长2.3%，低于6月预测的2.6%；中小企业贷款8月同比收缩1.4%。
货币政策委员会秘书 Don Nakornthab 说，尽管预测上调，整体增长仍低于潜能、收益分布仍集中。委员会认为宽松的政策立场与有针对性的金融措施正支持复苏，下一次利率会议定于12月23日举行。另外，泰国银行关于大额现金交易的新规已于11月1日生效：金融机构须对500万泰铢以上的合资格交易进行强化客户核查。
Thailand: Central Bank Holds Rate at 1 Percent and Raises Growth Forecast to 2.4 Percent for 2026
The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on October 28 to keep the policy rate at 1 percent, its fourth consecutive meeting without a move, and raised its growth forecasts: the Thai economy is now expected to grow 2.4 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027, up from June projections of 2.3 percent and 1.8 percent, the central bank's assessment published in recent days showed, citing stronger technology exports and private investment.
The committee forecasts merchandise export values rising 22 percent in 2026 and 15 percent in 2027, with private investment up 13 percent in 2026 and moderating to 7.6 percent in 2027. Merchandise exports rose 24 percent year on year in September as electronics benefited from the global super intelligence (SI) investment cycle, while imports climbed 50.4 percent on fuel and capital goods. Headline inflation is forecast to average 2.1 percent in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027.
The Bank of Thailand warned that growth remains below potential and that the benefits are concentrated among a small number of technology-linked companies and workers. Businesses reliant on domestic consumers face weak demand, intense competition and structural constraints: household consumption is forecast to grow just 2.3 percent in 2026, below the June forecast of 2.6 percent, and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises contracted 1.4 percent year on year in August.
MPC secretary Don Nakornthab said overall growth remains below potential and the benefits remain concentrated, and the committee judged that an accommodative stance and targeted financial measures were supporting the recovery. Its next meeting is scheduled for December 23. Separately, new Bank of Thailand rules on large cash transactions took effect on November 1, requiring financial institutions to conduct enhanced customer checks on qualifying transactions of 5 million baht or more.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：照片：泰国曼谷湄南河拉玛八世大桥，Dominic Nelson 摄，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0 授权 / Photo: Rama VIII Bridge over the Chao Phraya River in Bangkok, Thailand, by Dominic Nelson, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
