选前最终民调：民主党在七个参议院战场州全线领先，密歇根州领先11个百分点
美国华盛顿：《纽约时报》与锡耶纳大学（Siena University）11月1日发布中期选举选前最后一轮民调：在决定参议院控制权的七个战场州——阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、缅因州、密歇根州、俄亥俄州与德克萨斯州，民主党参议员候选人的支持率全部领先共和党对手，领先幅度从1个百分点到11个百分点不等。
美国中期选举11月3日（周二）投票，参议院35个席位与众议院全部435个席位改选。共和党目前以53比47掌握参议院，民主党须保住全部现有席位、并从共和党手中净增4席，才能夺回参议院多数。
领先幅度最大的是密歇根州：民主党候选人 Abdul El-Sayed 以53%比42%领先共和党候选人 Mike Rogers，11个百分点的差距为七州之最。德克萨斯州民主党候选人 James Talarico 以50%比43%领先共和党候选人 Ken Paxton；德州上一次选出民主党参议员还是在1988年。
缅因州民主党候选人 Troy Jackson 以51%比45%领先共和党现任参议员 Susan Collins；俄亥俄州民主党前参议员 Sherrod Brown 以49%比44%领先共和党现任参议员 Jon Husted；堪萨斯州民主党候选人 Adam Hamilton 以49%比44%领先共和党现任参议员 Roger Marshall，自由党候选人 David Graham 获得4%；堪萨斯州上一次选出民主党参议员还是在1932年。
另外两州接近打平：阿拉斯加州民主党前众议员 Mary Peltola 以48%比46%微弱领先共和党现任参议员 Dan Sullivan；爱荷华州民主党候选人 Josh Turek 以48%比47%领先共和党众议员 Ashley Hinson，仅差1个百分点。七州之中，只有密歇根州与德克萨斯州的领先幅度明显超出抽样误差，其余五州在统计上仍属胶着。
锡耶纳大学研究院执行主任 Don Levy 表示：“我们的选前最后一轮参议院民调显示，民主党在堪萨斯（5个百分点）、俄亥俄（5个百分点）、缅因（6个百分点）、德克萨斯州（7个百分点）与密歇根（11个百分点）领先。在阿拉斯加州，Peltola 以2个百分点领先 Sullivan，爱荷华州则基本打平。现在轮到选票全部投出、由计票结果说话，计票会比民调更有分量。按照我们的民调，出现蓝色浪潮、民主党控制参议院是确实可能的结果；但有这么多场选战落在民调的总误差范围之内，参议院多数归于哪一党都仍有可能。”
据《纽约时报》对这批民调的报道，七州可能选民中只有38%认可总统特朗普的执政表现，而他在2024年总统选举中曾在其中五个州以两位数的优势获胜；在生活成本议题上，民主党在七州合计领先共和党9个百分点。
同批民调的州长选战中，民主党在阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州、缅因州与密歇根州领先8个百分点以上：密歇根州 Jocelyn Benson 以52%比39%领先 John James，缅因州 Hannah Pingree 以49%比37%领先 Bobby Charles，阿拉斯加州 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 以54%比46%领先 Bernadette Wilson（该州州长选举采用排序复选制计票），爱荷华州 Rob Sand 以51%比43%领先 Zach Lahn。俄亥俄州 Amy Acton 以49%比43%领先 Vivek Ramaswamy；堪萨斯州与德克萨斯州的州长选战接近打平，德州 Gina Hinojosa 以48%比47%微弱领先现任州长 Greg Abbott。
这批民调于10月23日至11月1日在七州分别访问可能选民，各州抽样误差为正负3.4至5.0个百分点，其中德克萨斯州最小、阿拉斯加州最大，七州合计误差为正负1.6个百分点。Levy 定于美东时间11月2日上午9时30分起接受媒体访问，解读这批结果。
关联：密歇根州参议员选战再生变：Stevens与共和党候选人Rogers同场现身Detroit教会
关联：跟进：联邦法官驳回司法部阿拉斯加诉讼：无权要求隔离同名候选人选票、延迟认证
关联：缅因州最终民调：杰克逊52%对47%领先参议员柯林斯（GSM 据锡耶纳大学研究院发布与《纽约时报》报道）
Final Pre-Election Polls: Democrats Lead in All Seven Senate Battlegrounds, With an 11-Point Edge in Michigan
WASHINGTON: The New York Times and Siena University released their final round of midterm polling on November 1, showing Democratic Senate candidates leading their Republican opponents in all seven battleground states that will decide control of the Senate: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The Democratic leads range from 1 point to 11 points.
The midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, with 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats on the ballot. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47; Democrats must defend every seat they hold and flip a net four Republican seats to retake the majority.
The largest lead is in Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53 percent to 42 percent, an 11-point margin that is the widest of the seven states. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent; Texas last elected a Democratic senator in 1988.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 44 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian David Graham at 4 percent; Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932.
The remaining two races are nearly tied: in Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola edges Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 percent to 46 percent, and in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Representative Ashley Hinson 48 percent to 47 percent, a single point. Only the Michigan and Texas leads clearly exceed the sampling error; the other five races remain statistical dead heats.
“Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas (5), Ohio (5), Maine (6), Texas (7), and Michigan (11),” said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute. “In Alaska Peltola leads Sullivan by 2 points and Iowa is virtually tied. Now, it’s time for all votes to be cast and the counts to speak louder than the polls. While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.”
According to The New York Times' reporting on the polls, only 38 percent of likely voters across the seven states approve of President Donald Trump's job performance, even though he carried five of the states by double digits in the 2024 presidential election; on the cost of living, Democrats lead Republicans by 9 points across the seven states combined.
In the same round of polling, Democrats lead the governors' races by 8 points or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan: Jocelyn Benson leads John James 52 percent to 39 percent in Michigan, Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles 49 percent to 37 percent in Maine, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson 54 percent to 46 percent in Alaska, where the governor's race uses ranked-choice voting, and Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn 51 percent to 43 percent in Iowa. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy 49 percent to 43 percent in Ohio, while the Kansas and Texas governors' races are close, with Gina Hinojosa edging Texas Governor Greg Abbott 48 percent to 47 percent.
The surveys were conducted from October 23 to November 1 among likely voters in each state. The margin of sampling error ranges from plus or minus 3.4 points in Texas to 5.0 points in Alaska, and is plus or minus 1.6 points across all seven states combined. Levy is available to discuss the findings starting at 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Monday, November 2.
Related: Michigan Senate race twist: Stevens appears with Republican candidate Rogers at a Detroit church
Related: Follow-up: Federal judge dismisses Justice Department's Alaska lawsuit over ballot certification
Related: Final Maine poll: Jackson leads Sen. Collins 52 to 47 (GSM, based on the Siena Research Institute release and New York Times reporting)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：美国国会大厦西立面全景（Noclip 摄，经 Wikimedia Commons，公共领域） / The west front of the U.S. Capitol (photo by Noclip, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
