中国10月制造业PMI降至49.3：三大指数齐落荣枯线下、高技术制造业仍保持扩张
中国国家统计局10月31日公布，10月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3，比9月的50.1下降0.8个百分点，落到50的荣枯线以下，为三个月来最快的收缩步伐。路透社调查给出的预期中值为50.0，实际读数低于预期。
PMI以50为界，高于50表示活动较上月扩张，低于50表示收缩。这项指数根据采购经理对新订单、生产、就业等情况的月度报告编制。路透社在报道中指出，需求疲软、包括出口需求在内，是10月制造业走弱的主要背景。
走弱的不只是制造业。国家统计局同日公布，非制造业商务活动指数为49.7，比9月下降0.5个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为49.7，下降1.0个百分点。三大指数10月同时落到荣枯线以下。
制造业内部，生产指数为49.8，下降1.9个百分点；新订单指数为49.4，下降1.1个百分点，生产与需求两端同时放缓。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽辉解读称，10月制造业PMI回落主要受部分需求在国庆假期前提前释放、以及国际环境复杂多变等因素影响。
分企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.2，仍在扩张区间；中型企业为48.4，小型企业为47.5，中小企业的压力明显大于大型企业。
分行业看则有冷有热：高技术制造业PMI为51.3，装备制造业为50.6，两者都保持扩张；消费品制造业为48.8，高耗能行业为47.3，落入收缩区间。铁路、船舶、航空航天设备以及计算机、通信和电子设备等行业，生产与新订单指数都在53.0或以上。
非制造业内部，服务业商务活动指数为50.0，正好站在荣枯线上，假期出行带动了铁路运输、住宿以及文化、体育和娱乐服务；建筑业商务活动指数为48.0，下降2.3个百分点。
China's Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.3 in October: All Three Main Gauges Slip Below 50 as High-Tech Manufacturing Keeps Expanding
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on October 31, slipping back below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction at the fastest pace of contraction in three months. The reading missed a Reuters poll forecast of 50.0.
The PMI is compiled from purchasing managers' reports on whether conditions such as new orders, output and employment improved, worsened or were unchanged from the previous month. Reuters reported that soft demand, including demand for exports, weighed on manufacturers in October.
The weakness extended beyond factories. The non-manufacturing business activity index fell 0.5 points to 49.7, and the composite output index dropped 1 point to 49.7, leaving all three headline gauges below 50 in the same month.
Within manufacturing, the production index fell 1.9 points to 49.8 and the new-orders index declined 1.1 points to 49.4, with supply and demand slowing together. Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the bureau's Service Industry Survey Center, attributed the decline partly to demand brought forward ahead of the National Day holiday and to a complex and changing international environment.
By firm size, large manufacturers stayed in expansion at 50.2, while medium-sized firms registered 48.4 and small firms 47.5, showing the pressure falling heaviest on smaller businesses.
By industry, high-tech manufacturing remained in expansion at 51.3 and equipment manufacturing at 50.6, while consumer-goods manufacturing fell to 48.8 and high energy-consuming industries to 47.3. Production and new-orders indexes for railway, shipbuilding and aerospace equipment and for computer, communications and electronics manufacturing all stood at 53.0 or above.
In non-manufacturing, services activity edged down to exactly 50.0, with holiday travel supporting rail transportation, accommodation and cultural, sports and entertainment services, while construction activity fell 2.3 points to 48.0.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：中国一座工厂的自动化机器人生产线（资料图）。照片：Cory M. Grenier，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Automated robots on a factory line in China (file photo). Photo by Cory M. Grenier, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
