240席在望：库克政治报告再把12场众议院选战调向民主党，预计民主党翻转12至25席
无党派选举分析机构库克政治报告（Cook Political Report）10月30日发布最新评级，再把12场众议院选战的评级向民主党方向调整，并预计民主党将在11月3日的中期选举中翻转12至25个席位，最多可拿到240席。
按更新后的评级计算，如果民主党赢下所有被看好的席位、并拿下全部18场胶着（Toss Up）选战，其众议院席位将达到240席。库克政治报告指出，随着众议院战场版图扩大，民主党有望赢得2009年以来最大的众议院多数；这一数字不会达到奥巴马当选后257席的本世纪高点，但可能超过2006年与2018年两次蓝色浪潮之后的多数规模。
报告同时指出，总统特朗普的支持率即使在他2024年轻松赢下的深红选区也处于净负面，共和党的大额竞选投入似乎未能扭转局面；如果共和党的局面进一步恶化，民主党还可能翻转一些被评为倾向共和党乃至较稳共和党的席位。报告称，共和党方面尤其担心 North Carolina 与 Pennsylvania 两州的投票率，民主党有望在这两州的全州级选举中以明显优势胜出。
库克政治报告同日在其官方发布渠道还同步调整了两场参议院选战：Nebraska 州参议院选战由较稳共和党降至倾向共和党，Florida 州参议院选战由稳固共和党降至较稳共和党。
其众议院编辑 Erin Covey 在分析中写道，按更新后的评级，库克政治报告预计民主党将翻转12至25席、众议院席位最多达到240席。上述数字均为该机构分析师的评级判断，不是选举结果或保证；最终席位将由11月3日的投票决定。
民主党只需净增3席即可夺回众议院多数。库克政治报告自称是独立、无党派的选举分析刊物，长期分析众议院、参议院、州长与总统选举及美国政治趋势。
240 Seats in Reach: Cook Political Report Moves 12 More House Races Toward Democrats, Projecting a Flip of 12 to 25 Seats
The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election forecaster, on October 30 moved 12 more House races toward Democrats and said it now projects that Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats in the November 3 midterm elections, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House.
Under the updated ratings, if Democrats win the seats they are favored in, along with all 18 Toss Ups, they would have 240 seats. As the House battleground map has expanded, Cook said, Democrats now have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009. They will not reach the 257 seats they held following Barack Obama's election, a high-water mark for them this century, but they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue-wave cycles.
Cook also said President Donald Trump's approval rating is underwater even in deep red seats that he won comfortably in 2024, and that heavy spending from Republicans does not appear to be moving the needle. If the bottom completely falls out for Republicans, Cook said, Democrats could flip some seats in the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns as well, and Republicans are particularly concerned about turnout in places like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where Democrats are poised to win statewide races by comfortable margins.
In its official publishing channel the same day, Cook also moved two Senate races: Nebraska's Senate race moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Florida's Senate contest moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Erin Covey, Cook's U.S. House editor, wrote that under the updated ratings Cook is projecting that Democrats flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House. Those figures are the forecaster's analytical judgments, not election results or guarantees; the final outcome will be decided by voting on November 3.
Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to regain control of the House. The Cook Political Report describes itself as an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, governorships and the presidency, as well as American political trends.
Source: Cook Political Report, October 30
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：位于Washington的美国国会大厦西立面全景。照片：Noclip，公共领域，经Wikimedia Commons。 / The west front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington. Photo: Noclip, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
