加拿大央行加息25个基点至2.5% 为2023年7月以来首次加息 行长称或需进一步加息
加拿大央行（Bank of Canada）10月28日宣布，将隔夜利率目标上调25个基点至2.5%，银行利率为2.75%，存款利率为2.45%。这是该行自2023年7月以来首次加息，加拿大由此成为本轮全球能源价格冲击下率先收紧政策的主要央行之一。
央行在决议声明中表示，自7月《货币政策报告》以来，尽管能源价格更高，全球经济活动仍保持韧性；全球国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测小幅上调至2026年的3.1%，2027年与2028年维持3.2%不变。美国经济在消费支出与超级智能（SI）相关投资带动下保持强劲增长。加拿大经济年中回升：第二季度GDP增长3.3%，初步指标显示第三季度增长约2%，均强于7月预期；失业率数月来保持在约6.5%。但央行预计，受美国新关税影响，第四季度增长将放缓，2027年再回升；加拿大经济预计2026年增长1%、2027年与2028年各增长2%。
通胀是本次加息的直接推手。声明称，受油价持续高企影响，消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀自今年4月以来一直在约3%，预计年底升至约3.5%；9月不含汽油的通胀为2.2%，核心通胀指标仍接近2%，但燃料价格推高生产与运输成本、进口工业与电子投入品涨价，企业调查显示未来一年成本转嫁将增加。央行预计通胀2027年平均为3%，比7月预测高一个百分点，2028年年中回落至2%。
行长Tiff Macklem在记者会开场表示：「通胀前景已明显走高、经济又显示出韧性，因此有必要提高政策利率，以降低能源价格高企外溢为全面通胀的风险。」「政策利率可能有必要进一步上调，但考虑到不确定性，管理委员会同意谨慎行事。」央行下一次利率决议定于12月9日。
Bank of Canada Raises Rate 25 Basis Points to 2.5% in First Hike Since July 2023, Governor Says Further Increases May Be Needed
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday, October 28 raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. It was the central bank's first interest-rate increase since July 2023, making Canada one of the first major economies to tighten policy in response to the current global energy-price shock.
In its decision statement, the Bank said global economic activity had remained resilient since its July Monetary Policy Report despite higher energy prices, and it revised global GDP growth up slightly to 3.1% in 2026, with 2027 and 2028 unchanged at 3.2%. The US economy continues to grow at a robust pace, supported by consumer spending and super intelligence (SI)-related investment. Canada's economy picked up through the middle of the year: GDP grew 3.3% in the second quarter and recent indicators point to growth of about 2% in the third, both stronger than expected in July, while the unemployment rate has held around 6.5% for several months. Growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter owing to new US tariffs before picking up again in 2027; the Bank projects the Canadian economy to grow 1% in 2026 and 2% in both 2027 and 2028.
Inflation was the direct driver of the hike. The statement said that with oil prices persistently high, CPI inflation has been around 3% since April and is expected to rise to about 3.5% by the end of the year. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September and core measures remain close to 2%, but high fuel prices are raising production and transportation costs, imported industrial and electronics input prices have increased, and Bank surveys suggest cost pass-through will increase over the next year. The Bank expects inflation to average 3% in 2027, a percentage point above its July projection, before returning to 2% in the middle of 2028.
Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters: 'With the outlook for inflation substantially higher and the economy showing resilience, an increase in the policy rate is needed to reduce the risk that elevated energy prices could spill over and become generalized inflation.' He added: 'There could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully.' The Bank's next scheduled rate announcement is December 9.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：位于渥太华的加拿大央行总部大楼。/ The Bank of Canada head office in Ottawa. Taxiarchos228 摄 / Photo by Taxiarchos228, CC BY-SA 3.0, 经 Wikimedia Commons / via Wikimedia Commons
