美联储维持利率3.75%至4.00%不变：FOMC以10比2通过决议，Cook与Hammack主张加息
美国联邦储备委员会（美联储 Federal Reserve）下属的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）10月28日在华盛顿结束为期两天的议息会议，以10比2的投票批准会后声明，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.75%至4.00%不变。理事 Lisa D. Cook 与 Beth M. Hammack 投下反对票，两人主张本次会议加息25个基点。声明于美东时间10月28日下午2时由美联储在官网发布。
这是美联储在9月加息之后的首个按兵不动决定。FOMC 在9月15日至16日的会议上将目标区间上调25个基点至3.75%至4.00%，为2023年7月以来的首次加息。本次声明称，维持当前利率区间是为支持美联储就业最大化与物价稳定的双重使命，委员会同时继续执行维持银行体系充裕准备金的政策。
声明对美国经济的判断偏强：经济活动正以强劲步伐扩张；尽管不确定性仍然较高，其中一部分来自地缘政治局势，国内支出保持韧性；生产率增长强劲，资本投资旺盛；就业增长跟上了劳动力的步伐，失业率变化不大。
通胀方面，声明称通胀仍处于高位，更多信息的积累将帮助委员会判断何种政策立场合适，以确保通胀及时回到委员会2%的目标，并称委员会将实现物价稳定。10月决议意味着，在9月通胀数据显示消费者价格同比涨幅升至3.7%的背景下，多数委员选择先等待更多数据，再决定下一步是继续加息还是转向；投反对票的 Cook 与 Hammack 则认为应当立即再加25个基点。
本次会议没有发布新的经济预测摘要。按本站此前报道，市场在本周会议前已普遍预期美联储维持利率不变，并把焦点放在主席 Kevin Warsh 的记者会表态与12月会议上；路透社10月16日至20日对100名经济学家的调查显示，94人预计本次维持不变，全部100人预计12月将再加息一次；芝加哥商品交易所（CME）FedWatch工具显示，市场对本次维持利率不变的概率定价约九成。
关联：美联储10月27日至28日议息前瞻：市场预期维持利率3.75%至4.00%不变，沃什发布会成焦点，12月或再加息
Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4.00%: FOMC Votes 10-2 to Keep Rate Steady, Cook and Hammack Prefer a Hike
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting in Washington on October 28 and approved its policy statement by a 10-to-2 vote, deciding to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Governors Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against the action, preferring to raise the target range by a quarter of a percentage point at this meeting. The statement was released on the Federal Reserve's website at 2:00 p.m. EDT on October 28.
This is the Fed's first hold since its September increase. At its September 15-16 meeting, the FOMC raised the target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, its first rate increase since July 2023. The October statement said maintaining the current range supports the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, and that the Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
The statement's assessment of the economy was firm: economic activity is expanding at a strong pace; while uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient; productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust; job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
On inflation, the statement said inflation remains elevated, and that the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal, adding that the Committee will deliver price stability. No new Summary of Economic Projections was released at this meeting.
As GSM reported earlier this week, markets had broadly expected the Fed to hold at this meeting and were focused on Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and the December meeting; economists surveyed by Reuters generally expect one more increase in December.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：位于华盛顿的美联储总部埃克尔斯大楼（Eccles Building）。来源：美联储官方照片（公共领域），经 Wikimedia Commons
