世界银行西巴尔干经济报告：六国2026年增速料升至3.1%，削减贸易壁垒可带来最高12.5%的产出增益
世界银行10月27日在维也纳发布《西巴尔干定期经济报告》：阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、科索沃、黑山、北马其顿与塞尔维亚六个经济体，平均增速预计由2025年的2.6%升至2026年的3.1%，2027年与2028年进一步升至3.4%；报告称，降低贸易成本是创造更多就业的关键。
报告数据显示，该地区2025年货物与服务贸易额已达地区生产总值的107%，高于欧盟90%的平均水平。但平均约6%的货物关税之外，非关税措施估计再添约10%的关税等值成本，部分行业高达20%至30%；商业存在限制约17%，跨境服务限制约29%。新出口关系中只有约三分之一能存活过第一年，能进入第五年的仅1%至4%。世行测算，若把剩余贸易壁垒削减一半，中期可让地区生产总值提高最高12.5%。
世界银行西巴尔干局局长 Xiaoqing Yu 表示，贸易一体化已为该地区带来可观收益，但企业仍面对让货物、服务与投资跨境流动成本高昂的壁垒；削减这些壁垒既能释放增长，也能为当地居民创造更多、更好的就业。
报告是世界银行对西巴尔干六国的定期经济评估，涵盖增长、贸易、就业与改革议程，数据与国别细节以报告全文为准。
World Bank: Western Balkans Growth to Reach 3.1% in 2026, Halving Trade Barriers Could Lift GDP by Up to 12.5%
The World Bank released its Western Balkans Regular Economic Report in Vienna on October 27, projecting that the six economies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia will grow by an average of 3.1% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025, and by 3.4% in both 2027 and 2028, with lower trade costs identified as key to creating more jobs.
Trade in goods and services reached 107% of regional GDP in 2025, above the European Union average of 90%, the report notes. But beyond average goods tariffs of about 6%, non-tariff measures add an estimated 10% in tariff-equivalent costs, and 20% to 30% in some sectors, while restrictions on commercial presence are estimated at about 17% and cross-border services restrictions at about 29%. Only about one-third of new export relationships survive their first year, and just 1% to 4% reach year five. The Bank estimates that removing half of the remaining barriers could raise regional GDP by up to 12.5% over the medium term.
Xiaoqing Yu, the World Bank's Division Director for the Western Balkans, said trade integration has already delivered substantial gains for the region, but firms still face barriers that make it costly to move goods, services and investment across borders; cutting them would unlock growth and more and better jobs for local people.
The report is the Bank's regular economic assessment of the six Western Balkan economies, covering growth, trade, employment and the reform agenda.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德的圣马尔科教堂。Petar Milošević 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / St Mark's Church in Belgrade, Serbia. Photo by Petar Milošević, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
