美国10月消费者信心指数升至91.7：汽油价格回落带动回升，消费者仍抱怨生活成本高
世界大型企业研究会（The Conference Board）2026年10月27日在 New York 发布10月消费者信心指数：指数上升7.5点至91.7（1985年=100），高于9月上修后的84.2，回到今年6月水平；反映消费者对当前商业与就业状况评价的现状指数上升8.6点至120.4，反映短期收入、商业与就业展望的预期指数回升6.9点至72.6，但仅收复此前连续三个月跌幅的一部分。本次初步结果的调查期为10月1日至21日。
该机构高级经济学家 Fergus McCormick 表示，10月消费者信心回升主要由对当前与预期商业状况的看法改善带动，与9月至10月零售汽油价格回落相符；但尽管10月回升，消费者信心仍处在过去几年延续的长期下行趋势中，消费者计划在未来六个月减少服务与耐用品支出，这可能反映价格水平偏高与通胀持续侵蚀了购买力。
分项看，10月认为商业状况「好」的消费者占21.4%，认为「差」的占17.8%（9月为20.0%）；认为工作「充足」的占26.7%（9月24.3%），认为工作「难找」的占21.4%，与9月持平，就业市场差值改善2.4个百分点至+5.3%。对未来六个月，预期商业状况改善的占17.7%，预期恶化的占20.7%（9月25.2%）；预期收入增加的占18.7%，预期减少的占12.0%（9月14.9%）。
消费者在问卷自填回答中继续表达对生活成本上升的不满，提及价格、食品杂货高价与汽油柴油价格的内容有所上升；提及战争与冲突的内容连续第二个月回落但仍处高位，提及就业的担忧也略有上升。消费者平均12个月通胀预期10月降至5.8%，但仍处高位；更多消费者预计未来12个月股价将上涨。购房与购车计划按六个月移动平均计10月略有下降，计划未来六个月度假的消费者占43.3%，低于9月上修后的44.2%。据路透社报道，经济学家此前预期该指数为81。
US Consumer Confidence Rises to 91.7 in October as Gasoline Prices Ease, Conference Board Says
The Conference Board said on October 27, 2026, in New York that its Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100) in October, up from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September and back to June levels. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, recovered 6.9 points to 72.6, only partially reversing three consecutive monthly declines. The survey period for the preliminary results was October 1-21.
Fergus McCormick, senior economist for global indicators at the Conference Board, said consumer confidence advanced in October driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions, in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Despite the increase, he said, confidence remained on the long-term downward trend of the past few years, and consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, likely reflecting higher price levels and persistent inflation eroding purchasing power.
In detail, 21.4% of consumers said business conditions were "good" in October, while 17.8% said they were "bad," down from 20.0% in September. Some 26.7% said jobs were "plentiful," up from 24.3% in September, while 21.4% said jobs were "hard to get," unchanged, leaving the labor market differential up 2.4 points at +5.3%. Looking six months ahead, 17.7% expected business conditions to improve and 20.7% expected them to worsen, down from 25.2% in September; 18.7% expected their income to increase and 12.0% expected it to decline, down from 14.9%.
In write-in responses, consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs, with references to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices rising. Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated, and mentions of jobs as a concern also ticked up. Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations declined to 5.8% in October but remained elevated, and more consumers expected stock prices to increase over the next 12 months. Plans to purchase autos and homes both declined slightly on a six-month moving average basis, and 43.3% of consumers planned a vacation in the next six months, down from an upwardly revised 44.2% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 81.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：Virginia州Fairfax县Richmond Highway一家Walmart超市内的冷冻食品通道（资料图）。照片：Ben Schumin，CC BY-SA 2.0，经Wikimedia Commons。 / A frozen-food aisle inside a Walmart store on Richmond Highway in Fairfax County, Virginia (file photo). Photo: Ben Schumin, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
