NAHB建筑商信心指数10月跌至29创2012年以来新低：43%的建筑商降价促销
全美住宅建筑商协会（NAHB）与富国银行10月19日公布的住房市场指数（HMI）显示，2026年10月美国建筑商信心下跌3点至29，为2012年6月以来的最低水平，也低于道琼斯调查经济学家预期的31。指数低于50表明认为市场状况不佳的建筑商多于看好者，而买家流量分项创下十多年来的新低，显示高利率环境下新房需求持续受压。
三项分项指数全线走弱：当前销售状况指数跌2点至33，未来六个月销售预期指数跌5点至32，潜在买家流量指数跌5点至18——这是除2020年4月以外、2012年4月以来的最低读数。价格方面，10月有43%的建筑商下调房价，占比为2020年至2026年间的最高水平；平均降价幅度为6%，已连续第七个月维持这一幅度。另有65%的建筑商使用某种形式的销售激励，这一比例已连续第19个月不低于60%。分地区看（三个月移动平均），东北地区为38（跌1点），中西部40（跌3点），南部30（跌1点），西部26（跌2点）。
NAHB主席、俄亥俄州沃辛顿的建筑商兼改建商比尔·欧文斯（Bill Owens）表示，抵押贷款利率「升至远高于7%」，加上汽油价格和通胀走高，进一步削弱了看房流量；建筑商同时面临建筑贷款、建筑材料和柴油成本上涨。欧文斯还指出，过去一个月，全国超过三分之一的建筑商报告其所在市场区域出现移民执法活动，造成施工延误，并使合法工人不敢上工。
NAHB首席经济学家罗伯特·迪茨（Robert Dietz）表示：「住房市场继续受到供给侧约束和严峻的可负担性挑战的双重挤压。」他指出，在利率回落之前，建筑商只能依靠降价和激励措施维持销量。
NAHB Builder Confidence Falls to 29 in October, Lowest Since 2012, as 43% of Builders Cut Prices
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 29 in October 2026, the lowest reading since June 2012, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released on October 19. The reading came in below the 31 that economists polled by Dow Jones had expected, and any index below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor than good.
All three index components declined: current sales conditions fell two points to 33, sales expectations for the next six months fell five points to 32, and prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 18, its lowest level since April 2012 excluding April 2020. On pricing, 43% of builders cut home prices in October, the highest share recorded in the 2020-2026 period, while the average price cut held at 6% for a seventh straight month. Sixty-five percent of builders used sales incentives, the 19th straight month at or above 60%. Regional three-month moving averages were 38 in the Northeast (down one), 40 in the Midwest (down three), 30 in the South (down one), and 26 in the West (down two).
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio, said mortgage rates "climbed well above 7%," and that higher gas prices and inflation further weakened buyer traffic, while builders also face rising construction loan, materials, and diesel costs. Owens added that in the past month, more than one-third of builders nationwide reported immigration enforcement activity in their market areas, causing construction delays and discouraging legal workers from showing up.
"Housing remains squeezed by supply-side constraints and significant affordability challenges," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, noting that until rates ease, builders must lean on price cuts and incentives to keep homes moving.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：德克萨斯州Pflugerville一处新建住宅社区施工现场（Wikimedia Commons，KevinMoralesRealtor 摄，CC0） / Photo: A new housing subdivision under construction in Pflugerville, Texas (Wikimedia Commons, by KevinMoralesRealtor, CC0)
