美国9月领先经济指标持平于99.6：消费者预期大跌抵消利差与工时增益，咨商会预计2026年GDP增长2.2%
世界大型企业联合会（The Conference Board，咨商会）10月22日发布的报告显示，美国9月领先经济指标（LEI）持平于99.6（2016年=100），8月为下降0.1%。尽管单月持平，但因7月数据上修，指数水平高于上月报告；今年3月至9月的六个月间，LEI累计上涨0.6%，扭转此前六个月下降1.1%的走势。
构成LEI的十项分项指标中，五项在9月作出正贡献，领涨的是利率利差与制造业平均周工时；但消费者预期大幅下滑，抵消了上述增益，股价、资本品新订单与建筑许可也作出小幅负贡献。咨商会商业周期指标高级经理尤斯蒂娜·扎宾斯卡-拉莫尼卡（Justyna Zabinska-La Monica）表示，LEI六个月增长率小幅上升，表明经济仍在增长且将继续增长，只是增长动力正从依赖消费支出转向更依赖企业投资。
同步经济指标（CEI）9月上涨0.3%至115.3，其四项分项——非农就业、剔除转移支付的个人收入、制造业与贸易销售、工业生产——全部作出正贡献；滞后指标上涨0.5%至121.1。咨商会同时上调增长预期：现预计美国2026年实际GDP年化增长率为2.2%，2027年为2.0%，均高于此前的预测。下一次LEI报告定于11月19日发布。
US Leading Economic Index Flat at 99.6 in September as Consumer Expectations Slide; Conference Board Sees 2.2% GDP Growth in 2026
The Conference Board reported on October 22 that the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) was unchanged in September 2026 at 99.6 (2016=100), following a 0.1% decline in August. An upward revision to July's data left the index at a higher level than in the previous report, and the LEI grew 0.6% over the six months from March to September, reversing a 1.1% decline over the prior six months.
Five of the LEI's ten components made positive contributions in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing. Those gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits. "The LEI's six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.3% in September to 115.3, with all four components — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production — contributing positively. The Lagging Economic Index rose 0.5% to 121.1. The Conference Board raised its outlook and now expects real GDP to grow at a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with 2027 at 2.0%. The next LEI release is scheduled for November 19.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：纽约证券交易所（资料图）。Photo: Arild Vågen, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
