美国假日季配送价格创纪录：燃油附加费计算方式推高成本，地面配送价格同比涨5.8%、快递涨13.8%
据路透社报道，美国今年假日季的包裹配送价格将创下纪录：TD Cowen／AFS 货运指数显示，第四季度地面配送价格预计比去年同期高5.8%，更快的快递配送价格预计跳涨13.8%；该指数分析了包括大型零售商在内的约1,800家发货方的数据。假日季包裹量可比平时翻倍，零售商的配送成本因此明显上升。
推高价格的直接因素是 UPS 与 FedEx 的燃油附加费。美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，10月19日全美公路柴油均价为每加仑6.28美元，自2月28日美国与以色列打击伊朗以来已上涨65%。但 AFS Logistics 首席分析官 Mingshu Bates 表示，柴油涨价在附加费涨幅中占比不足30%，推高成本更主要的是两家承运商计算附加费方式的改变，这类涨幅即使油价不涨也会发生。
路透社举例说，2021年第一季度柴油为每加仑2.91美元时，该指数的燃油附加费约占基础运价的7.75%；即使柴油回到那个价位，按现行计算方式附加费也会达到约23.75%，约为当年的三倍。按 EIA 的6.28美元均价与两家公司公布的附加费表计算，UPS 目前的燃油附加费率为29.5%，FedEx 为29%。
报道指出，附加费的计算方式变化正在持续抬高承运商收入，也让依赖电商与节日出货的零售商在一年中最重要的销售季面对创纪录的物流开支。
U.S. Retailers Face Record Holiday Delivery Prices: Ground Rates Up 5.8% and Express Up 13.8% as Fuel Surcharges Climb
According to Reuters, the most expensive parcel shipping year on record in the United States is on track to end with the highest-ever holiday season delivery prices, as soaring diesel prices drive even higher fuel surcharge rates from UPS and FedEx. According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, which analyzes data from about 1,800 shippers including major retailers, pricing for ground deliveries in the fourth quarter is expected to be 5.8% higher than the same period last year, while pricing for speedier express parcel deliveries is forecast to jump 13.8%. Holiday-related package volume can double during the fourth quarter.
The U.S. average on-highway diesel price was $6.28 per gallon as of October 19, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), up 65% since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. But diesel price increases account for just under 30% of the fuel surcharge cost, said Mingshu Bates, chief analytics officer at AFS Logistics. Surcharges driven by changes to how UPS and FedEx calculate them are rising far faster than fuel prices, and go up even when fuel prices do not, she said.
Reuters noted that when diesel was $2.91 per gallon in the first quarter of 2021, the index fuel surcharge was 7.75% of the base shipping rate; even if diesel returned to that price, the surcharge now would be 23.75%, roughly three times higher, reflecting how changes in surcharge calculations are raising carriers' revenue. Based on company surcharge tables at the EIA average diesel price, UPS's fuel surcharge is 29.5% and FedEx's is 29%.
The changes are boosting costs for retailers heading into the year's most important selling season.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：UPS 干线货车在德克萨斯州 Arlington 的配送中心（资料图）。照片：美国农业部，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。Photo: A UPS semi-trailer truck at a distribution center in Arlington, Texas (file photo). Photo: U.S. Department of Agriculture, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
