全美房地产经纪人协会 NAR 首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 大幅下调2026年预测：成屋销售与房价增速降至2%或更低
全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 近日大幅下调 2026 年美国楼市预测：他现在预计 2026 年成屋销售量与房价较 2025 年仅增长约 2% 或更低，新屋销售则预计同比下降 5%。Yun 对 Realtor.com 表示，下调的主因是房贷利率快速上行。
这次下调经历了两次收窄。去年 11 月，Yun 曾预测 2026 年成屋销售将从当时的三十年低点反弹、同比增长 14%，中位价增长 4%；到今年 4 月，他已把成屋销售增速预期降至 4%，理由包括高利率、通胀与伊朗战争带来的经济不确定性；如今再降至 2% 或更低。
利率是关键变量。Yun 最初的预测假设 2026 年房贷利率全年平均约 6.5%，但利率此后一路攀升，自 9 月最后一周起持续高于 7%，同额贷款的月供随之上升，买家购买力被进一步压缩。Yun 表示，市场总在变化，有些变化有利楼市、有些不利，近几个月最大的不利事件就是房贷利率快速上涨，进一步压低了市场前景。他同时提到，若 2027 年初利率回落至接近 6%，积压的观望买家有望被释放。
房贷银行家协会（MBA）首席经济学家 Mike Fratantoni 在本月早些时候的 MBA 年会上预计，房贷利率今年余下时间将维持在约 7.3%，2027 年仍将高于 7%。他表示，通胀仍然过高，促使各国央行上调短期利率，而财政赤字与债务处于不可持续的高位，推动债券投资者抬高长期利率。
来源：GSM·美国（据 Realtor.com 报道整理）
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Slashes 2026 Forecast: Existing-Home Sales and Prices Seen Growing 2% or Less
National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has sharply revised his 2026 U.S. housing forecast downward. Yun now expects existing-home sales volume and prices to grow around 2% or less in 2026 compared with 2025, while new-home sales are projected to decrease by 5% year over year. Yun told Realtor.com that fast-rising mortgage rates are the main reason for the revision.
The downgrade came in two steps. Last November, Yun projected existing-home sales would rise 14% in 2026 from the three-decade low reached the year before, while forecasting that median prices would grow by 4%. By April, he had already tempered expectations, projecting that existing-home sales volume would rise just 4% from last year, citing high interest rates, inflation, and growing economic instability from the Iran war. The latest update cuts that figure to around 2% or less.
Mortgage rates are the swing variable. Yun had initially predicted that mortgage rates would average around 6.5% for the year. Instead, rates have steadily climbed and have remained above 7% since the last week of September, raising the monthly payment on the same loan amount and further denting buyer purchasing power. "Markets are constantly changing—some have a positive impact on the housing market, and others, negative. The big unpleasant event over recent months is the fast-rising mortgage rates, therefore further denting the market outlook," he told Realtor.com. He also noted that if rates fall toward 6% in early 2027, sidelined buyers could be unlocked.
At the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual conference earlier this month, MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni predicted mortgage rates would remain around 7.3% for the rest of the year and hover above 7% through 2027. "Inflation is too high, leading central banks to raise short-term rates, while budget deficits and debt are unsustainably high, leading bond investors to push up longer-term rates," he said.
Source: GSM·USA (compiled from Realtor.com reporting)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：内华达州 Las Vegas 西郊 Summerlin 社区住宅区航拍（资料图）。照片：Ken Lund，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。Photo: Aerial view of residential neighborhoods in Summerlin, Las Vegas, Nevada (file photo). Photo: Ken Lund, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
