多伦多市长选举今日投票：华裔现任市长邹至蕙选前最后民调52%领先白必勤44%
加拿大多伦多市长选举10月26日（周一）投票，投票站上午10时开放、晚8时关闭。华裔现任市长邹至蕙（Olivia Chow）寻求首个完整任期，主要对手是市议员白必勤（Brad Bradford）。
提前投票热度创下纪录。多伦多市政府公布，10月6日至11日六天提前投票共有222,550名选民投票，比2023年市长补选的129,745人增加约72%，是2010年以来最高。
选前最后民调出现逆转。民调机构 Liaison Strategies 10月25日公布的「多伦多脉搏」调查显示，在已决定及倾向投票的选民中，邹至蕙获52%支持，白必勤44%，选其他候选人的占4%，尚未决定的仅剩6%。该调查于10月24至25日以互动语音方式访问750名多伦多居民，按2021年人口普查加权，误差为正负3.6个百分点。
几天前，同一机构10月21日公布的调查还是白必勤以49%对47%领先。Liaison 负责人 David Valentin 表示，邹至蕙以8个百分点反超，但各区投票率分布将影响最终结果：邹至蕙在市中心（60%对35%）与士嘉堡（Scarborough，51%对44%）领先，白必勤在怡陶碧谷（Etobicoke，54%对41%）与北约克（North York，52%对46%）领先。
其他机构的调查方向一致：Pollara 10月23日的调查为邹至蕙55%对44%，Canada Pulse Insights 同日调查为51%对46%。
邹至蕙2023年在市长补选中胜出；白必勤当时仅获约1%选票，2025年10月再次宣布参选。本次选战的核心议题是生活成本、公共安全、税收与市政服务：邹至蕙承诺推出公交票价封顶（每周付满10次车费后免费乘车）、扩大免费学校午餐计划；白必勤主张冻结物业税一年、削减土地转让税。计票结果将于今晚投票结束后陆续公布。
Toronto Votes Today in Mayoral Election: Incumbent Olivia Chow Leads Brad Bradford 52% to 44% in Final Poll
Toronto, Canada, votes in its mayoral election on Monday, October 26, with polling stations open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow, the city's Chinese-Canadian mayor, is seeking her first full term against her main challenger, City Councillor Brad Bradford.
Advance voting set a record. The City of Toronto said 222,550 voters cast ballots over six days of advance voting from October 6 to 11, up about 72 percent from 129,745 in the 2023 mayoral by-election and the highest advance turnout since 2010.
The final poll showed a reversal. A Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey released October 25 put Chow at 52 percent among decided and leaning voters, Bradford at 44 percent, someone else at 4 percent, with only 6 percent still undecided. The survey interviewed 750 Toronto residents by interactive voice recording on October 24-25, weighted to the 2021 Census, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Days earlier, the same firm's October 21 survey had Bradford ahead 49 to 47. Liaison principal David Valentin said Chow now leads by eight points, reversing a two-point deficit, but regional turnout will shape the result: Chow leads downtown (60 to 35) and in Scarborough (51 to 44), while Bradford leads in Etobicoke (54 to 41) and North York (52 to 46).
Other pollsters pointed the same way: a Pollara survey on October 23 had Chow at 55 to 44, and Canada Pulse Insights the same day had her at 51 to 46.
Chow won the 2023 mayoral by-election; Bradford took only about 1 percent in that race and announced a new run in October 2025. The campaign has centred on the cost of living, public safety, taxes and city services: Chow promises a transit fare cap (free rides after 10 paid fares in a week) and an expanded free school lunch program, while Bradford pledges a one-year property tax freeze and a cut to the land transfer tax. Results are expected after polls close tonight.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：多伦多市长邹至蕙（Olivia Chow）。照片：厄瓜多尔总统府，2024年3月，公共领域，经维基共享资源。 / Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow. Photo: Presidency of Ecuador, March 2024. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
