南加州大学民调：陈诗敏41%紧追维纳47%，佩洛西接班人之争仍在误差范围内
加利福尼亚州旧金山县旧金山市消息：南加州大学民主与公平选举实验室10月25日公布的一项民调显示，在接替前众议院议长南希·佩洛西的国会众议员席位争夺中，加州州参议员斯科特·维纳以47%对41%领先旧金山市议员陈诗敏（Connie Chan），但6个百分点的差距落在民调误差范围内，选情依然胶着。
民调负责人、大学政治学教授克里斯蒂安·格罗斯指出，语言障碍可能使只说中文的选民更难被民调触及，这一点可能有利于陈诗敏。在未决定选民被要求做出选择后，维纳的支持率升至51%，陈诗敏为44%。民调还发现，亚太裔受访者中31%支持陈诗敏、59%支持维纳；但格罗斯提醒，由于小组样本量小，更细的族裔划分结果并未公布。
值得注意的是，陈诗敏此前在实际计票中的表现一向好于选前民调：今年6月初选前，三项民调显示她与另一名候选人大致持平、各约20%，最终她以29.7%得票率位居第二。此外，佩洛西已表态支持陈诗敏，但民调显示，在强烈认可佩洛西的受访者中，54%支持维纳、46%支持陈诗敏。格罗斯表示，这项以电子邮件进行的民调只是选情的一个快照，民调难以触及部分语言社区的不确定性，意味着最终结果仍难预测。
USC Poll: Connie Chan at 41% Trails Scott Wiener 47% in Race for Pelosi Seat, Within Margin of Error
San Francisco, San Francisco County, California: A poll released October 25 by the USC Center for the Political Future’s democracy and equity election lab shows State Senator Scott Wiener leading San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan 47% to 41% in the race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Congress, a six-point gap within the poll’s margin of error.
Poll director Christian Grose, a USC political science professor, noted that language barriers may make Chinese-only-speaking voters harder for pollsters to reach, which could benefit Chan. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, Wiener rose to 51% and Chan to 44%. Among Asian American and Pacific Islander respondents, 31% backed Chan and 59% backed Wiener, though Grose cautioned that finer ethnic breakdowns were not released because of small subgroup samples.
Chan has a track record of outperforming her polls: before the June primary, three polls showed her roughly tied with another candidate at about 20% each, yet she finished second with 29.7% of the vote. Pelosi has endorsed Chan, but among respondents who strongly approve of Pelosi, 54% backed Wiener and 46% backed Chan. Grose said the email-based poll is only a snapshot, and the difficulty of reaching some language communities leaves the outcome hard to predict.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：资料图：旧金山县建筑（固定图库 counties 包）（同城同批换图：县级固定图库）
