跟进：巴西决选今日投票：卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗势均力敌，谁胜出都将改写地区格局

据路透社10月25日自圣保罗报道，巴西选民当天走进投票站，在一场势均力敌的总统决选中投票，决定拉美最大国家是向右急转、靠拢美国，还是由现任总统再获一个任期。决选对阵双方是左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦与右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗——前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗之子。

据路透社报道，民调显示两名候选人在决选前夕几乎势均力敌，卢拉在最后几天缩小了差距。历史先例对博索纳罗有利：从未有过首轮第二名的候选人最终赢得巴西总统决选。博索纳罗在本月初首轮投票中获得47%的选票，卢拉为45%，博索纳罗爆冷领先的结果出乎民调机构预料；首轮胜利还带动巴西市场与货币大涨，因市场预期其亲商改革；其自由党及其他右翼政治力量在国会选举中的同步胜利，也为其铺平立法道路，或反过来给卢拉的执政增添难度。

博索纳罗现年45岁。他的父亲雅伊尔·博索纳罗因策划2022年政变于2025年被定罪，弗拉维奥已承诺一旦当选将释放其父。特朗普曾称针对老博索纳罗的案件是“政治迫害”，并于2025年对巴西加征50%关税——这一决定明确与老博索纳罗的审判挂钩；尽管其中许多关税后来被淡化，特朗普今年又以不公平贸易做法为由对巴西祭出新的征税。卢拉则把特朗普政府与博索纳罗家族的亲近描述为干预选举的企图，并称关税与惩罚性措施是“霸凌”，华盛顿否认干预指控。

经济议题上，尽管不平等与失业率下降，卢拉仍难以说服为高生活成本与沉重家庭债务所困的选民；猖獗的帮派暴力同样牵动选民神经。博索纳罗一方面借生活成本议题发力，另一方面承诺以强硬手段打击犯罪，包括修建最高安全级别监狱、对严重性犯罪实施化学阉割。博索纳罗若胜选，将延续拉美一波与特朗普友好的右翼胜选浪潮；卢拉若赢得第四个非连续任期，则将令在贸易与安全问题上与其政府冲突的华盛顿失望。本站10月23日曾报道决选前最新民调：博索纳罗以47%对46%微弱领先卢拉，25日投票；25日的投票日本身即为新进展，结果将于投票结束后陆续揭晓。

来源：GSM·美国

Follow-Up: Brazil Votes in Tight Presidential Runoff: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro in a Race That Could Reshape the Region

Brazilians headed to the polls on Sunday, October 25, in a tight presidential runoff that could shift Latin America's largest nation sharply rightward, bringing it closer to the United States, or hand the incumbent president another term, Reuters reported from São Paulo. The runoff pits leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro.

According to Reuters, polls show the candidates practically tied going into the runoff, with Lula closing the gap in the final days. Historical precedent favors Bolsonaro: no candidate has ever won the presidency after coming second in the first-round vote. Bolsonaro took 47% of ballots in the first round earlier this month, against 45% for Lula, defying pollsters; his first-round win sent Brazil's markets and currency soaring on expectations of pro-business reforms, and his Liberal Party and other right-wing politicians made parallel gains in congressional elections, which could pave a legislative path for him or complicate governance for Lula.

Bolsonaro is 45. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was convicted in 2025 of plotting a 2022 coup, and Flávio has pledged to free his father if elected. President Donald Trump has called the case a "witch hunt" and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, a decision explicitly linked to Jair Bolsonaro's trial; while many of those tariffs were later watered down, Trump unleashed new levies against Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices. Lula has cast the Trump administration's proximity to the Bolsonaro clan as part of an attempt to sway the election, labeling tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying; Washington denies meddling charges.

On economic issues, despite falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over an electorate grappling with high living costs and heavy household debt. Endemic gang violence also weighs on voters' minds. Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns and has promised a heavy-handed approach to fighting crime, pledging maximum-security jails and chemical castration for serious sexual offenses. A Bolsonaro victory would extend a wave of right-wing victories in Latin American candidates friendly to Trump, while a fourth, non-consecutive mandate for Lula would disappoint Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. GSM reported on October 23 that the latest pre-runoff poll put Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula, 47% to 46%, with voting on October 25; the voting day itself is the new development, and results will emerge as counting proceeds.

Source: GSM·USA

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：巴西总统卢拉官方肖像。图片：Palácio do Planalto，CC BY 2.0 — via Wikimedia Commons

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