路透调查：94位经济学家料美联储10月按兵不动，全部100位料12月加息
路透社10月20日公布的一项调查显示，美联储将在10月27日至28日的议息会议上按兵不动、随后在12月加息，已成为经济学家的主流预期。这项在10月16日至20日进行的调查访问了100位经济学家，其中94位预计美联储将在10月会议上把联邦基金利率维持在3.75%至4.00%区间，与市场定价一致；而全部100位受访者预计美联储将在12月加息——与上月调查中不足半数人作此预期相比，出现了明显逆转。
联邦公开市场委员会9月已一致加息25个基点。调查显示，近六成受访者预计政策利率将在4.00%至4.25%区间见顶，92位回答该问题的受访者中有38位预计至少还会再加息两次，高于9月调查中的五分之一。美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 近来没有给出明确指引；接受调查的瑞穗证券高级美国经济学家 Alex Pelle 对路透社说，经济强劲、通胀居高不下，10月不加息「从政策角度看是错误的决定」，12月加息25个基点是大概率事件，加息50个基点的风险大于完全不加息的风险。
通胀仍是促使预期转向的主要原因。路透社报道，通胀已连续近六年高于美联储2%的目标，调查的中值显示，美联储偏好的个人消费支出价格指数在未来几个季度将维持在高于目标100个基点以上，至少要到2028年才回到目标水平。与伊朗战争相关的能源成本上升与新关税推高了生活成本，油价维持在每桶100美元以上。10月会议恰逢11月3日中期选举前几天，路透社指出，美联储坚称会议时间与选举无关。
本周美股走势已反映了加息预期的升温：本站10月24日曾报道，美股周五收低、道指跌653点，油价飙升与美债收益率重回5%压市。本次调查结果出炉后，市场焦点转向10月27日至28日会议本身——按调查预期，这次会议将按兵不动，真正的加息落在12月。
来源：GSM·美国
Reuters Poll: 94 Economists Expect the Fed to Hold in October; All 100 Expect a December Hike
The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at its October 27-28 meeting and deliver a hike in December, according to a Reuters survey published on October 20 — now the mainstream view among economists. Of the 100 economists surveyed between October 16 and 20, 94 expect the central bank to keep the federal funds rate in a 3.75%-4.00% range in October, in line with market pricing, while all 100 expect a rate hike in December — a sharp reversal from fewer than half saying so in last month's poll.
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Nearly 60% of forecasters now see the policy rate peaking in a 4.00%-4.25% range, and 38 of the 92 who answered the question predict at least two further increases, up from one-fifth in the September survey. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has given no clear guidance lately. Alex Pelle, senior U.S. economist at Mizuho Securities, told Reuters that holding in October is "the wrong call from a policy point of view" given a strong economy and stubborn inflation, adding that a 25-basis-point hike in December is likely, and the risk is greater that the Fed ends up hiking 50 basis points than not hiking at all.
Inflation is the main driver of the shift. Reuters reported that inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for nearly six years, and poll medians show the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge, staying more than 100 basis points above target over coming quarters and not returning to target until at least 2028. Higher energy costs tied to the war with Iran and new tariffs have pushed living costs up, with oil holding above $100 a barrel. The October meeting falls just days before the November 3 midterm elections; Reuters noted the Fed insists the timing has nothing to do with the elections.
U.S. stocks have already felt the hawkish turn: GSM reported on October 24 that stocks closed lower on Friday, with the Dow down 653 points, as surging oil prices and Treasury yields back above 5% weighed on the market. With the survey out, attention turns to the October 27-28 meeting itself — expected, per the poll, to hold steady, with the actual hike landing in December.
Source: GSM·USA
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：位于华盛顿的美联储大楼。图片：Stefan Fussan，CC BY-SA 3.0 de，取自维基共享资源。
