Realtor.com报告：全美65.6%未偿房贷利率低于5%，疫情期低息贷款占42.8%创纪录
房地产平台 Realtor.com 10月22日发布2026年第二季度未偿抵押贷款数据报告：全美仍在偿还的房贷中，65.6%的利率低于5%，49.1%低于4%；2022年年中利率开始上行之后新发放的贷款只占存量房贷的27.8%。报告数据来自联邦住房金融局（FHFA）国家抵押贷款数据库，结论是高利率对低息贷款的「锁定效应」仍在主导美国住房市场，低息贷款的释放过程比许多人预期的更慢。
按利率分档看存量房贷结构：低于3%的占19.2%，3%至4%的占29.9%，4%至5%的占16.5%，5%至6%的占12.0%，6%及以上的占22.5%——其中6%以上一档较上年同期上升2.3个百分点、较上一季度上升0.3个百分点。按发放时间看，2019年年中至2022年年中利率处于历史低位时期发放的贷款，如今占全部存量房贷的42.8%，创有记录以来新高，高于上一季度的40.8%；这批屋主当年买房或再融资时锁定的利率远低于当前市场水平。
Realtor.com 高级经济学家 Hannah Jones 表示：「低于3%的房贷利率是极为例外的情形、不是新常态。自1971年有数据以来，利率只在疫情时期那段窗口跌破过这一水平，而屋主们今天仍在围绕这些异常低的利率做决定。」她说，利率「解锁」是真实存在的、但速度很慢，低息贷款只能随着时间逐渐到期、被置换或被偿清。
报告指出，疫情时期那批贷款的房龄集中在5至7年一档，占比由上一季度的40.8%升至42.8%，将继续影响房主的平均持有年限分布；历史上占比最大的本应是1至4年一档。当前市场利率方面，房地美（Freddie Mac）上周公布的30年期固定房贷平均利率为7.32%——手握5%以下贷款的屋主若在此时换房，新贷款成本将大幅上升，这正是许多潜在卖家按兵不动、市场上待售房源释放缓慢的核心原因。报告同时指出，生育、换工作、离婚等重大生活事件带来的刚性交易仍在让市场保持运转，通胀与房贷利率回落将是卖家活动回升的关键变量，而近期利率再度上行已把市场复苏的预期进一步推后。
Realtor.com: 65.6% of Outstanding U.S. Mortgages Carry Rates Below 5% as Pandemic-Era Loans Reach a Record 42.8% Share
Realtor.com released its Q2 2026 Outstanding Mortgage Data report on October 22: 65.6% of outstanding U.S. mortgages carry a rate below 5% and 49.1% sit below 4%, while loans originated since mid-2022, when rates began rising from pandemic lows, account for just 27.8% of the total. Drawing on the Federal Housing Finance Agency's National Mortgage Database, the report concludes that mortgage rate lock-in remains the dominant force in the housing market, and that the release of low-rate loans is proceeding more slowly than many expected.
By rate band, 19.2% of outstanding mortgages are below 3%, 29.9% are between 3% and 4%, 16.5% between 4% and 5%, 12.0% between 5% and 6%, and 22.5% are at 6% or higher — the top band up 2.3 percentage points from a year earlier and 0.3 points from the prior quarter. By origination date, loans made between mid-2019 and mid-2022, when rates were at historic lows, now make up a record 42.8% of all outstanding mortgages, up from 40.8% in the first quarter.
"A mortgage rate below 3% was an extraordinary exception, not a new normal. In data going back to 1971, rates fell below that mark only during the pandemic-era window and homeowners are still making decisions around those unusually low rates today," said Hannah Jones, senior economist at Realtor.com. "The rate unlock is real, but it's slow, as low-rate loans gradually age out, are traded up or paid off."
With Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% last week, owners holding sub-5% loans face a sharply higher borrowing cost if they move, which the report identifies as the core reason would-be sellers are staying put and inventory is being released slowly. Life events such as having children, job changes and divorce keep the market in motion, Realtor.com noted, but easing inflation and mortgage rates will be key drivers of seller activity — and the recent surge in rates has pushed expectations of a recovery further out.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：美国 Colorado Springs 郊区住宅区航拍（资料图）。图：David Shankbone，CC BY-SA 3.0，经维基共享资源
