塞尔维亚10月25日举行提前议会选举：学生运动挑战Aleksandar Vucic，民调显示选情胶着
塞尔维亚于10月25日（周日）举行提前议会选举：这个约600万人口的巴尔干国家当天上午7时开放投票站、晚8时关闭（格林尼治时间19时），初步结果预计在投票结束后约两小时公布。据路透社报道，由学生运动推出的名单正挑战执政十余年的 Aleksandar Vucic——他先后以总理、总统身份主政塞尔维亚，本次选举被视为其统治迄今面临的最大考验。
这场选举由 Vucic 于今年9月宣布提前举行。此前近两年，学生领导的抗议席卷全国：2024年11月，北部城市 Novi Sad 一座火车站的顶棚坍塌、造成16人死亡，抗议者认为工程腐败是事故根源，要求彻查与问责。学生名单共推出250名候选人，包括大学教授、演员与农民，由心脏病学家 Ilija Srdanovic 领衔；民主党与 Kreni Promeni 运动未单独推出名单，转而支持学生名单。Vucic 已于9月27日辞去总统职务、转而竞逐总理，其领导的塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）名单主打经济增长、提高工资与养老金、基础设施投资与政治稳定，并承诺2027年实现4%的经济增长。
民调显示选情胶着：Ipsos 周四公布的民调显示进步党以47%领先学生名单的40%，但另有民调显示学生名单反超。风险咨询机构 Verisk Maplecroft 高级欧洲分析师 Mario Bikarski 表示：「塞尔维亚选举正成为该国的分水岭时刻，学生名单对 Vucic 构成了迄今最大的挑战。」选民 Bogdan Pavkovic 周四在 Belgrade 的学生集会上说，他想改变「这个欺骗我们、监视我们、殴打我们的可怕制度」。Vucic 与进步党多次否认镇压、腐败与监视反对派的指控，称学生受外国势力资助，学生方面对此予以否认。
在对外关系上，Vucic 长期在主要投资来源中国、传统盟友兼主要天然气供应国俄罗斯与加入欧盟的可能性之间保持平衡。路透社指出，欧盟对塞尔维亚在司法、法治与反腐改革上的停滞日益不满，双方关系趋紧；学生名单的国内纲领以根除腐败、改善教育为主，对外立场相对低调。
Serbia Votes in Snap Parliamentary Election on October 25: Student Movement Challenges Aleksandar Vucic in Tight Race
Serbia voted in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday, October 25: polling stations in the Balkan country of some 6 million people opened at 7 a.m. and were due to close at 8 p.m. (1900 GMT), with first indications of the results expected about two hours later. According to Reuters, a list fielded by the student protest movement is challenging Aleksandar Vucic, who has held power first as prime minister and then as president for more than a decade, in what is seen as the biggest test of his rule so far.
Vucic called the snap election in September after almost two years of student-led demonstrations. The protests were triggered by the collapse of a railway station canopy in the northern city of Novi Sad in November 2024, which killed 16 people and which protesters blame on corruption. The student list fields 250 candidates, including university professors, actors and farmers, led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic; the Democratic Party and the Kreni Promeni movement backed the students rather than fielding their own lists. Vucic resigned as president on September 27 to run for prime minister. His Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)-led list campaigns on economic growth, higher wages and pensions, infrastructure investment and political stability, and has pledged 4% economic growth in 2027.
Opinion polls predict a tight race: an Ipsos poll published on Thursday put the SNS ahead with 47% of votes versus 40% for the students, while other polls have put the students in the lead. "The Serbian election is shaping up to be a watershed moment for the country as the Student List mounts the biggest challenge against Vucic yet," said Mario Bikarski, senior Europe analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. Bogdan Pavkovic, at a final student rally in Belgrade on Thursday, said he wanted to change "this awful, horrendous system which cheats on us, which spies on us, which beats us." Vucic and the SNS have repeatedly denied accusations of repression, corruption and spying on opponents, and say the students are funded by foreign agents, a charge the students dismiss.
Abroad, Vucic has balanced closer ties with China, a major investor, and Russia, Serbia's traditional ally and principal supplier of natural gas, while leaving the door open to joining the European Union. Reuters noted that relations with the EU have frayed over a lack of reforms on the judiciary, rule of law and corruption. The students' domestic agenda aims to root out graft and improve schooling, though they have been quieter on their international ambitions.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：位于塞尔维亚 Belgrade 的国民议会大楼（Pudelek／Marcin Szala 摄，CC BY-SA 3.0，经 Wikimedia Commons）
