NMHC十月调查：公寓债务融资指数从46骤降至10，有到期贷款压力的业主中17%警告部分物业可能被法拍
全美多户住宅委员会（National Multifamily Housing Council，NMHC）10月22日发布的十月公寓市场状况季度调查显示，公寓业主面临的融资环境急剧恶化：债务融资指数从7月的46骤降至10，股权融资指数从44降至17，销售量指数从46降至22，租赁市场紧俏指数从57降至47。该指数低于50表示报告情况恶化的受访者多于报告改善者。调查于10月1日至15日收集了全美130位公寓相关企业首席执行官与高管的看法。
借贷与交易两头都在收紧。全样本中，81%的受访者表示现在比三个月前更不是借钱的时候，只有2%认为有所改善；66%表示可获得的股权融资减少。61%的受访者报告公寓物业成交量少于三个月前，报告增多的只有4%。相比之下，租赁市场本身相对稳定：53%的受访者表示租市紧俏程度没有变化，26%表示有所松动，21%表示更紧俏。
再融资压力是最受关注的部分。22%的受访者表示近期贷款到期敞口不大；在其余78%有实际到期压力的受访者中，17%表示自己或客户的部分物业可能面临法拍（foreclosure）——这一数字是受访者层面的比例，并非预测17%的公寓楼或贷款会进入法拍。同一组人中，61%表示受贷款方的偿债覆盖率或贷款价值比要求所限，无法把部分到期贷款全额再融资；45%预计需要追加自有资金，39%表示贷款方允许修改或展期贷款，16%预计用夹层债务或优先股补缺口。
NMHC 首席经济学家 Chris Bruen 把融资环境恶化归因于长期利率与通胀居高：2020年与2021年以极低利率借款的业主，如今要以高得多的成本再融资，可能被迫追加资金、争取展期或出售物业。
NMHC October Survey: Apartment Debt Financing Index Falls to 10 From 46, 17% of Owners Facing Maturities Warn of Possible Foreclosures
Apartment financing conditions deteriorated sharply in October even as rental markets stayed relatively stable, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council's (NMHC) October Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions, released October 22. The Debt Financing Index fell to 10 from 46 in July, the Equity Financing Index dropped to 17 from 44, the Sales Volume Index declined to 22 from 46, and the Market Tightness Index slipped to 47 from 57. An index below 50 means more respondents reported worsening than improving conditions. The survey collected views from 130 CEOs and senior executives at apartment firms nationwide between October 1 and 15.
Borrowing and property sales both weakened. Across the full survey, 81% of respondents said it was a worse time to borrow than three months earlier, while only 2% saw an improvement, and 66% reported less available equity financing. Sixty-one percent reported fewer apartment property sales than three months earlier, compared with 4% who reported more activity. The rental market was steadier: 53% reported no change in tightness, 26% said conditions had loosened and 21% said they had tightened.
Refinancing pressure drew the most concern. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported little near-term exposure to loan maturities. Among the remaining 78% with meaningful exposure, 17% said they or their clients may face foreclosure on certain properties — a share of respondents, not a forecast that 17% of apartment buildings or loans will enter foreclosure. Within that group, 61% said lender debt-service or loan-to-value requirements prevented refinancing the full amount of some maturing loans; 45% expected to contribute additional equity, 39% reported lenders allowing modifications or extensions, and 16% anticipated using mezzanine debt or preferred equity.
NMHC Chief Economist Chris Bruen attributed the deterioration to higher long-term interest rates and inflation. Owners who borrowed at unusually low rates in 2020 and 2021 now face refinancing at much higher borrowing costs, potentially requiring more equity, lender extensions or property sales.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：美国一处公寓楼外观（资料图，摄于 Spokane）。摄影：Warren LeMay，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。Photo: An apartment building in Spokane, Washington (file photo). By Warren LeMay, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
