菲律宾央行超预期加息50个基点至5.50%：通胀回升至7.2%，比索跌至历史新低
马尼拉——菲律宾中央银行（Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas，简称BSP）10月22日宣布，将基准隔夜逆回购利率上调50个基点至5.50%，隔夜存款利率与贷款利率同步上调50个基点，分别至5.00% 与6.00%。这是菲律宾央行自4月以来第四次连续加息，累计加息125个基点，也是自2023年2月以来第一次单次加息50个基点。加息幅度超出市场预期：BusinessWorld调查的22名分析师中20人预期加息25个基点、仅2人预期50个基点；《华尔街日报》调查的11名经济学家也都只预期加息25个基点。
推动央行采取强硬举措的，是重新抬头的通胀与持续走弱的比索。菲律宾9月总体通胀率回升至7.2%，高于8月的6.1%，连续7个月高于央行2% 至4% 的目标区间；核心通胀率升至4.7%，为近三年高点。比索10月21日收盘报63.361比索兑1美元，再创历史新低。央行在声明中说，货币委员会认为需要采取强有力的政策回应，以应对不断扩大的价格压力与进一步的上行风险，这样的果断回应将使货币政策保持适当的限制性，并有助于锚定通胀预期 。央行还警告说，通胀在未来几个月将进一步加速，2027年仍将处于高位，2028年才会接近3% 的目标。
菲律宾经济增长同时在放缓：第二季度国内生产总值同比增长2.3%，为连续第四个季度放缓、疫情后新低；上半年增长2.6%，低于政府全年3.5% 至4.5% 的目标。中东紧张局势推高油价与交通票价、厄尔尼诺现象威胁农作物产量，都构成通胀的上行风险。央行下一次会议定于12月17日举行，据报道，菲律宾银行BPI首席经济学家预计12月会议可能再加息25个基点至5.75%。
（GSM据菲律宾央行声明经BusinessWorld、《华尔街日报》及TradingView报道综合整理）
Philippine Central Bank Delivers Surprise 50-Basis-Point Hike to 5.50% as Inflation Hits 7.2% and Peso Falls to Record Low
MANILA — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its benchmark overnight reverse repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.50 percent on October 22, lifting its overnight deposit and lending rates by 50 basis points each, to 5.00 percent and 6.00 percent. It is the fourth consecutive tightening since April, bringing total increases since then to 125 basis points, and the first 50-basis-point move since February 2023. The move was bigger than the market expected: 20 of 22 analysts polled by BusinessWorld forecast a quarter-point increase and only two called the half-point move, while all 11 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a 25-basis-point hike.
Resurgent inflation and a weakening peso drove the decisive move. Headline inflation returned to 7.2 percent in September from 6.1 percent in August, the seventh straight month above the BSP's 2 to 4 percent target; core inflation climbed to 4.7 percent, nearly a three-year high. The peso closed at a record low of 63.361 to the dollar on October 21. In its statement, the central bank said the Monetary Board saw a need for a strong policy response to broadening price pressures and further upside risks, and that such a decisive response would make monetary policy appropriately restrictive and help anchor inflation expectations. The bank warned inflation would accelerate further in the coming months, remain elevated in 2027, and approach its 3 percent target only in 2028.
Growth is slowing at the same time: gross domestic product expanded 2.3 percent in the April-to-June quarter, its fourth consecutive quarterly slowdown and a post-pandemic low, with first-half growth of 2.6 percent against the government's full-year target of 3.5 to 4.5 percent. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices and transport fares, while El Niño conditions threaten farm output, adding to upside risks. The Monetary Board's next meeting is on December 17; BPI lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. expects another 25-basis-point increase at that meeting, which would take the policy rate to 5.75 percent by year-end, according to reports.
(GSM, from the BSP statement via BusinessWorld, The Wall Street Journal and TradingView)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：菲律宾央行布图安分行大楼，资料图。照片：FSUUpedia Restore Division，CC BY-SA 3.0，经Wikimedia Commons。 / The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Butuan branch building (file photo). Photo: FSUUpedia Restore Division, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
