Redfin报告：美国待售签约量跌至2021年有记录以来最低，典型月供2796美元为历史第二高
房地产经纪公司 Redfin 10月22日发布的四周滚动报告显示，截至10月18日的四周内，美国待售签约量（pending sales）降至281,749套，较前一个四周期下降1.9%、同比下降14.4%，是 Redfin 自2021年有该周度数据以来的最低读数。报告同时指出，这是待售签约量连续第二周在全美50个人口最多的大都会区全部同比下跌，跌幅最大的包括 Seattle（-28.8%）与 San Diego（-25.4%），其次是 Atlanta、Denver 与 Las Vegas。以上数字为 Redfin 自行统计的估算。
压住买家的是融资成本。报告期内典型月供达到2,796美元，为 Redfin 记录中的第二高水平，同比上涨10.4%；其测算所用的房贷利率约为7.4%。同期全美房屋销售价格中位数为390,614美元、同比仅涨0.2%，挂牌价中位数为399,629美元、同比涨0.9%——房价基本走平，但月供被高利率推高。房地美（Freddie Mac）的周度口径同样显示30年期固定利率均值仍在7.32%一线，远高于一年前。
供给端也在收缩：同一四周内新挂牌量为354,412套，环比下降1.4%、同比下降2.7%，为7月以来最低；在售房源总量约151万套、同比增加2.1%，库存月数（months of supply）为4.4个月，高于去年的4个月，Redfin 将4至5个月视为供需平衡区间。报告期内21.7%的在售房源下调过价格，23.3%的成交房源以高于挂牌价售出。Redfin 认为，全国范围内卖家数量比买家多出数十万，买家获得了十多年来最强的议价空间。（GSM 据 Redfin 报告与《Mortgage Point》报道）
来源：GSM·美国
Redfin: U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Their Lowest Since Records Began in 2021, Typical Monthly Payment the Second Highest Ever at $2,796
In its four-week rolling report released on October 22, real estate brokerage Redfin said U.S. pending home sales fell to 281,749 in the four weeks ending October 18, down 1.9% from the prior four-week period and 14.4% from a year earlier, the lowest reading in Redfin's weekly data series, which goes back to 2021. For the second consecutive week, pending sales fell year over year in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metro areas, with the steepest drops in Seattle (-28.8%) and San Diego (-25.4%), followed by Atlanta, Denver and Las Vegas. The figures are Redfin's own estimates.
Financing costs are what is holding buyers back. The typical monthly housing payment reached $2,796 in the period, the second-highest level in Redfin's records and up 10.4% from a year earlier, calculated at a mortgage rate of about 7.4%. The median sale price was $390,614, up just 0.2% year over year, and the median asking price was $399,629, up 0.9%: prices are roughly flat, but high rates have pushed payments sharply higher. Freddie Mac's weekly survey likewise puts the average 30-year fixed rate at about 7.32%, far above a year ago.
Supply is tightening at the same time: new listings totaled 354,412 in the same four weeks, down 1.4% from the prior period and 2.7% from a year earlier, the lowest since July, while active listings stood at about 1.51 million, up 2.1% year over year. Months of supply was 4.4, up from 4 a year earlier; Redfin treats 4 to 5 months as a balanced market. In the period, 21.7% of listings had a price cut and 23.3% of homes sold above list price. Redfin says there are hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers nationwide, giving buyers their strongest negotiating leverage in more than a decade. (GSM, from Redfin's report and The Mortgage Point)
Source: GSM·America
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：美国一处挂牌出售的住宅与「FOR SALE」牌（资料图，摄于 New Orleans）。照片：Infrogmation，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / A U.S. home listed for sale with a 'FOR SALE' sign (file photo, New Orleans). Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
