跟进：日本9月核心通胀同比升2.1%：九个月来首次高于央行2%目标

东京——日本总务省 10 月 23 日（周五）公布的数据显示，日本 9 月全国核心消费者价格指数（除生鲜食品、含燃料）同比上涨 2.1%，与市场预期中值一致，较 8 月的 1.7% 加快，为九个月来首次高于日本央行 2% 的通胀目标，显示价格压力正在扩散。同时公布的、剔除生鲜食品与燃料的指数同比上涨 2.4%，高于 8 月的 1.9%——该指数被日本央行视为衡量需求驱动型价格压力的更佳指标。商品价格 9 月同比上涨 2.8%，也快于 8 月的 2.6%。

数据显示，中东冲突旷日持久推高燃料成本、疲软的日元抬高进口价格、强劲的人工智能需求带来的价格压力，正在抵消日本政府燃料补贴的平抑作用。日本央行上月刚把关键政策利率上调至 1.25%，为 31 年来最高，释放出防范潜在通胀超标的信号，并让进一步加息的前景升温。日本央行行长植田和男曾警告，剔除临时性、一次性因素后的潜在通胀，可能在中东冲突、弱势日元与旺盛的 AI 需求带来的价格压力下超出 2% 目标。

据路透援引的消息人士，日本央行下周会议预计将维持政策不变，但可能上调通胀预测，并释放愿意继续上调当前仍属低位的借贷成本的信号。Sompo Institute Plus 高级经济学家小池真人说：「受中东冲突导致的能源成本上升及其第二轮效应影响，核心通胀预计将加速。但由于物价涨幅并未急剧扩大，10 月连续加息的必要性不大。」他预测日本央行的下一次加息将落在 12 月。（GSM 据路透社报道及日本总务省公布数据）

Follow-Up: Japan's Core Inflation Rises 2.1% in September, Above BOJ Target for First Time in Nine Months

TOKYO — Japan's annual core consumer inflation exceeded the central bank's 2% target in September for the first time in nine months, data released by the Statistics Bureau on Friday, October 23, showed, a sign of broadening price pressure that cements the case for a near-term interest rate hike. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in September from a year earlier, matching a median market forecast and accelerating from a 1.7% rise in August. An index that strips away the effects of both fresh food and fuel — closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a better gauge of demand-driven price pressures — rose 2.4% in September from a year earlier, after increasing 1.9% in August. Goods prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in September, accelerating from a 2.6% gain in August.

The figures underscored how higher fuel costs from the prolonged Middle East conflict, elevated import prices driven by the weak yen and price pressures from robust AI demand were blunting the impact of government fuel subsidies. The Bank of Japan raised its key rate to a 31-year high of 1.25% last month, signalling a shift to guarding against underlying inflation overshooting its target and raising the prospect of additional rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has warned that underlying inflation may overshoot its 2% target on price pressures from the Middle East conflict, a weak yen and brisk AI demand.

Having just raised interest rates last month, the BOJ is set to stand pat on policy next week but may revise up its inflation forecast and signal its readiness to keep pushing up still-low borrowing costs, sources have told Reuters. "Core inflation is expected to accelerate due to rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict and subsequent second-round effects," said Masato Koike, a senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus. "But with price rises not accelerating sharply, there's little need for a back-to-back rate increase in October," he said, projecting the BOJ's next hike to come in December. (GSM, from Reuters reporting and Statistics Bureau of Japan data)

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：日本银行总部大楼（东京，资料图）。照片：Wiiii，CC BY-SA 3.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Bank of Japan headquarters, Tokyo (file photo). Photo: Wiiii, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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