跟进：密歇根大学10月消费者信心终值48.0：自初值上修、仍为史上第二低
密歇根大学消费者调查（Surveys of Consumers）10月23日公布10月消费者信心指数终值为48.0，高于本月初公布的初值46.3，也高于市场预期，但仍略低于9月终值48.1，为该调查有记录以来的第二低，仅高于今年5月伊朗战争爆发后不久创下的历史最低44.8；去年10月该指数为53.6。
分项看，现状指数终值46.7，低于9月的50.9；预期指数终值48.8，高于9月的46.3。消费者对未来一年通胀的预期由9月的4.6%升至4.7%，已由今年2月的3.4%明显攀升；对未来五年通胀的预期由3.4%升至3.5%。约69%的消费者预计未来一年利率将上升，为2023年4月以来最高。
消费者调查主任 Joanne Hsu 表示，购买力继续主导消费者对经济的看法，信心指数比一年前低10%、比伊朗冲突前的今年2月低15%；主动提及高物价拖累个人财务的消费者占比连续第四个月上升，达到56%，高于今年1月的45%，汽油价格被四成以上受访者主动提及。路透社报道称，分政党看，民主党与共和党受访者的信心10月均有所改善，但无党派受访者信心由9月的47.7降至42.4，拖累了总指数。
本次终值公布时，距11月3日中期选举已不足两周。密歇根大学说明，该调查为全国代表性抽样、全月通过网络访谈进行。
Follow-Up: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Finalized at 48.0 in October, Second-Lowest on Record
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported on October 23 that its Consumer Sentiment Index was finalized at 48.0 for October, revised up from the preliminary reading of 46.3 published earlier this month and above economists' forecasts, but still a shade below September's final 48.1. The reading is the second-lowest on record, behind only the all-time low of 44.8 set in May, not long after the Iran war began; the index stood at 53.6 in October last year.
By component, the Current Economic Conditions Index was finalized at 46.7, down from 50.9 in September, while the Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 48.8 from 46.3. Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next year nudged up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September, having surged from 3.4% in February, and five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. About 69% of consumers expect interest rates to rise in the year ahead, the highest share since April 2023.
"Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, noting that sentiment is now 10% below a year ago and 15% below February, just prior to the Iran conflict. The share of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices are dragging down their personal finances rose for a fourth straight month to 56%, up from 45% in January, and gasoline prices were mentioned unprompted by more than 40% of respondents. According to Reuters, sentiment among both Democrats and Republicans improved in October, but a drop among independents, to 42.4 from 47.7 in September, pulled the overall index down.
The final reading landed less than two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. The University of Michigan says the survey is a nationally representative sample interviewed by web throughout the month.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：密歇根大学 Ann Arbor 校区化学楼（资料图），w_lemay 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经维基共享资源
- 2026-10-10 14:03密歇根大学消费者信心10月初值跌至46.3，逼近历史最低，现状指数创纪录新低
- 2026-10-23 19:22跟进：密歇根大学10月消费者信心终值48.0：自初值上修、仍为史上第二低本篇
