盖茨谈AI过渡期：约20年动荡将至 两三年内先见网络攻击与就业冲击
微软联合创始人、盖茨基金会主席比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）在10月22日发布的 The Verge《Decoder》播客访谈中表示，人工智能带来的过渡期大约会持续20年，他称这是一个「相当稳妥的数字」。他说：「即使我们以最好的方式管理AI，这也将是人类历史上最动荡的时期之一。」
盖茨说，他最大的担忧正是这段约20年的过渡期：期间会有赢家与输家、伴随大量冲击，社会必须先走过这一段，才能抵达他所说的「丰裕时代」。在那个阶段，机器人可以建房、种粮、做手术，前提是世界不选择大幅放慢或叫停AI的发展。
冲击会来得更早。盖茨预计，两到三年内，人们就会看到AI驱动的网络攻击与就业市场方面的明显负面效应；电话销售、会计等白领工作会先受到影响，因为「不存在AI达不到的认知高峰」。
他还谈到，社会可能因此出现分化：一部分人生活在技术前沿，另一部分人则像阿米什人（Amish）那样，选择不生活在技术前沿。盖茨今年8月曾发表文章《动荡的AI时代已经到来》（The turbulent AI era is here），称当下作出的选择至关重要；此次访谈是他近几个月就AI风险持续公开发声的一部分。据 The Verge 报道，盖茨并不认为自己是「AI末日论者」，但他表示AI仍是极其危险的技术。
Bill Gates on the AI Transition: About 20 Tumultuous Years Ahead, With Cyber and Job Shocks in Two to Three
Bill Gates, the Microsoft co-founder and chair of the Gates Foundation, said in an interview on The Verge's Decoder podcast published on October 22 that the transition brought by artificial intelligence would last about 20 years, calling that "a reasonably safe number." "Even in the very best case of how we manage AI, this is going to be as tumultuous a period as there's been in human history," he said.
Gates said his big concern is that 20-year transition period, with its winners and losers and a lot of disruption, which society has to get through in order to reach what he called a period of abundance. In that era, robots could build houses, grow food and do surgery, unless the world chooses to massively slow down or stop AI development.
The damage starts much sooner, he said. Within two to three years, he expects significant negative effects from AI-driven cyberattacks and in the job market. White-collar work such as telesales and accounting goes first, he said, because "there isn't some mountaintop of cognition that the AI does not achieve."
He also suggested society could split: some people would live at the technology frontier, while others, like the Amish, would choose not to live at the technological frontier. In August, Gates published an essay, "The turbulent AI era is here," arguing that the choices made now are critical; the interview is part of a months-long series of public remarks on AI risk. According to The Verge, Gates does not consider himself an AI doomer, but he says the technology remains extremely dangerous.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：盖茨2025年6月24日在比利时布鲁塞尔欧洲议会发展委员会会议上发言（Philippe Buissin 摄，© European Union 2025，欧洲议会，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY 4.0）
