研究：2026年夏季欧洲854座城市热相关超额死亡50,391人，约65%归因于人为气候变化，为有记录以来最高
伦敦帝国理工学院与伦敦卫生与热带医学院团队在《自然·健康》发表的研究估计，2026年6月至8月，欧洲854座城市共有50,391人死于热相关超额死亡（95%经验置信区间为46,026至53,878），是这套方法下有记录以来最高的夏季数字，高于2022年的29,480人与2003年的28,462人，也超过2025年24,572人的两倍。
这854座城市约有1.73亿居民，只覆盖研究涉及的30个国家约四成人口，因此全欧洲的实际负担还会更高。研究估计，其中32,619人的死亡与人为气候变化有关，约占总数的65%。死者以85岁以上老人最多，达22,502人。约三分之一的死亡集中在6月17日至7月1日，当时这批城市的日均气温比1991至2020年的平均水平高5.3摄氏度。南欧的热相关超额死亡率最高，为每百万人380人，马耳他、意大利、匈牙利与克罗地亚的比率居前；按绝对人数估计，意大利约13,303人，为各国最多。
各国官方统计与这一模型估计大体相符。法国公共卫生署报告6月17日至7月2日有5,764例热相关超额死亡；德国罗伯特·科赫研究所估计4月初至9月初约16,000例；西班牙的死亡监测系统报告6月至8月有5,123例；英格兰与威尔士在6月21日至28日的一周内估计有2,124例。欧洲死亡监测平台 EuroMOMO 的临时估计也显示，仅7月中旬至8月中旬，全欧超额死亡就已经超过32,000人。研究者提醒，这些数字是模型估计，不是逐张死亡证明的点算，所用方法假设人群的热脆弱性全年不变，作者认为结果可能仍偏保守。
哥白尼气候变化服务确认，2026年夏季是欧洲有记录以来第三热的夏季、西欧最热的夏季。研究估计，在没有人为变暖的反事实气候下，欧洲会比现在凉约2.5摄氏度。研究者说，2026年很可能是欧洲迄今最危险的一个夏天。
（来源：伦敦帝国理工学院）
Study: 50,391 Heat-Related Excess Deaths Across 854 European Cities in Summer 2026, About 65% Attributed to Human-Caused Warming, the Highest on Record
A study by researchers at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, published in Nature Health, estimates that 50,391 people died from heat-related excess mortality across 854 European cities between June and August 2026 (95% empirical confidence interval 46,026 to 53,878). That is the highest summer figure on record under this methodology, above 29,480 in 2022 and 28,462 in 2003, and more than double the 24,572 estimated for 2025.
The 854 cities are home to about 173 million people, only about 40% of the population of the 30 countries covered, so the true burden across Europe will be higher. The researchers estimate that 32,619 of the deaths were attributable to human-caused climate change, about 65% of the total. The largest share were people aged 85 and over, at 22,502. Around a third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1, when average daily temperatures across the cities ran 5.3°C above the 1991-2020 mean. Southern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate at 380 per million people, with Malta, Italy, Hungary and Croatia among the highest rates; in absolute terms Italy had the most deaths, an estimated 13,303.
Official national figures broadly align with the modelling. Santé publique France reported 5,764 heat-related excess deaths between June 17 and July 2; Germany's Robert Koch Institute estimated about 16,000 from early April to early September; Spain's mortality monitoring system reported 5,123 for June to August; and England and Wales saw an estimated 2,124 in the single week of June 21 to 28. The EuroMOMO mortality monitoring network's provisional estimate put Europe-wide excess deaths above 32,000 in just the period from mid-July to mid-August. The researchers caution that the figures are modelled estimates rather than death-certificate counts, that their method assumes heat vulnerability is constant through the year, and that the results are likely conservative.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that summer 2026 was Europe's third-hottest summer on record and western Europe's hottest. The study estimates that, in a counterfactual climate without human-caused warming, Europe would be about 2.5°C cooler than it is today. The researchers say 2026 was probably Europe's most dangerous summer yet.
(Source: Imperial College London)
来源：伦敦帝国理工学院
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：西班牙耶萨水库在干旱中水位下降的滩涂，欧洲南部是2026年夏季热浪的重灾区。Basotxerri 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The drought-lowered shore of the Yesa reservoir in Spain; southern Europe bore the brunt of the summer 2026 heatwaves. By Basotxerri, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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