无党派民调 TPOR 选前最后预测：James Talarico 以51%对47%领先 Ken Paxton，州长选战 Greg Abbott 领先3分
位于德克萨斯州特拉维斯县的奥斯汀是德州首府。无党派机构「德州公共舆论研究」（Texas Public Opinion Research，TPOR）10月23日（周五）发布11月3日中期选举前的第三次、也是最后一次民调。调查于10月15日至18日进行，共访问969名可能投票的德州选民，误差范围为正负3.9个百分点。
结果显示，在备受全国关注的联邦参议员选战中，民主党候选人 James Talarico 以51%对47%领先共和党籍总检察长 Ken Paxton，自由党候选人 Ted Brown 获得2%。细分数据显示，Talarico 在独立选民中以66%对28%大幅领先，在非裔选民中以87%对11%、拉丁裔选民中以60%对39%、女性选民中以54%对47%占优；Paxton 则在白人选民中以60%对38%、男性选民中以50%对47%、无大学学位选民中以50%对47%领先，并在55岁以上选民中占优。
同一民调还显示，州长选战中寻求第四个任期的共和党现任州长 Greg Abbott 以51%对48%领先民主党挑战者 Gina Hinojosa。
需要说明的是，本轮 TPOR 民调与本站10月22日已报道的福克斯新闻49%对49%打平民调为两次不同的调查。德州提前投票将持续至10月30日，选举日为11月3日。
来源：GSM·美国
Final TPOR Poll: James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton 51% to 47% in Texas Senate Race, Greg Abbott Up 3 in Governor's Race
AUSTIN, Texas — Austin, Travis County, is the Texas state capital. The nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) released its third and final poll before the November 3 midterm elections on Friday, October 23. The survey, conducted October 15 to 18, sampled 969 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
In the nationally watched U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 47%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2%. Talarico leads among independent voters 66% to 28%, Black voters 87% to 11%, Latino voters 60% to 39%, and women 54% to 47%. Paxton leads among white voters 60% to 38%, men 50% to 47%, and voters without a college degree 50% to 47%, and is ahead among voters over 55.
The same poll found Republican Governor Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 51% to 48% in the governor's race.
This TPOR survey is a separate poll from the Fox News poll, reported by GSM on October 22, that showed the Senate race tied at 49% to 49%. Early voting in Texas runs through October 30, with Election Day on November 3.
Source: GSM·America
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：德克萨斯州议会大厦（位于奥斯汀）。摄影：LoneStarMike，CC BY 3.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: the Texas State Capitol in Austin, by LoneStarMike, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
