UC San Diego 参与全州评估：气候变化正让加州付出数百亿美元级经济成本
加州大学圣迭戈分校（UC San Diego）2026年10月发布的一项全州评估显示，气候变化已在推高加州的经济成本，涵盖高温相关疾病与死亡、工时损失，以及保险与公用事业账单上涨。该报告为加州第五次气候变化评估的四份全州专题报告之一，由州长土地利用与气候创新办公室牵头，州政府、学界、部落与社区伙伴共同参与，经济影响部分由 UC San Diego 全球政策与战略学院的 Gordon McCord 与 Teevrat Garg 领衔。
报告综合已发表研究估算：到2050年，加州每年可能新增约560例高温相关死亡，经济影响约77亿美元；在高升温情景下，野火烟尘暴露每年可能导致约5,060例额外死亡，经济影响约688亿美元；到2040年代初，干旱造成的水资源短缺每年可能给农业带来27亿至51亿美元的直接损失；若海平面上升约20英寸（最早可能在2050年出现），约179亿美元的住宅与商业建筑可能面临淹没风险。报告同时指出，高温到2050年可能使 Central Valley 高暴露行业工人每年损失5至10个工时，州东南部达15至20个工时，损失在内陆地区、低收入家庭与户外劳动者中分布最不均衡。
UC San Diego-Led Assessment: Climate Change Is Imposing Tens of Billions in Economic Costs on California
A statewide assessment released in October 2026 with leadership from the University of California San Diego finds that climate change is already raising economic costs across California, from heat-related illness and deaths to lost work hours and higher insurance and utility bills. The report is one of four statewide topical reports in California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment, a multiyear effort led by the Governor's Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation with state, academic, tribal and community partners; the economy report was led by Gordon McCord and Teevrat Garg of UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy.
Drawing on published research, the report estimates that by 2050 California could see about 560 additional heat-related deaths each year, representing roughly $7.7 billion in annual economic impact, and that under a high-warming scenario wildfire smoke exposure could cause about 5,060 additional deaths a year, representing about $68.8 billion annually. By the early 2040s, drought-related water shortages could cause $2.7 billion to $5.1 billion in direct agricultural losses each year, and roughly 20 inches of sea-level rise, which could occur as soon as 2050, could inundate an estimated $17.9 billion worth of residential and commercial buildings. Heat is also projected to cut 5 to 10 work hours a year for highly exposed workers in the Central Valley by 2050 and 15 to 20 hours in southeastern California, with burdens falling hardest on inland regions, low-income households and outdoor workers.
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图片来源：图：UC San Diego 的 Geisel 图书馆（资料图）。照片：Stephen Bay，CC BY 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Geisel Library at UC San Diego (file photo). Photo: Stephen Bay, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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