AP-NORC民调：民主党选民对计票准确性信心从75%降至55% 共和党升至38%
美联社与 NORC 公共事务研究中心（AP-NORC）10月公布的一项新民调显示，美国登记选民对选票能否被准确统计的信心出现党派分化：认同民主党的选民中，表示对计票准确性「非常有信心」或「相当有信心」的比例，从2022年中期选举前的75%降至今年的55%；共和党选民的这一比例则从26%升至38%。全体选民的信心比例从50%降至45%，无党派选民两次调查均为34%。
民调还显示，约九成民主党选民认为总统试图影响选举结果是美国选举的「重大问题」，持此看法的共和党选民约占两成；约七成共和党选民认为无资格者投票是「重大问题」，民主党选民中这一比例为25%。两党多数选民都把外国政府试图影响选举结果、超级智能生成的选举不实信息、以及各州为偏袒一党重划立法选区列为「重大问题」。仅17%的登记选民表示「极其」或「非常」有信心美国最高法院会公平、无党派地处理与中期选举有关的案件。
受访选民的说法呈现两极。伊利诺伊州 Centreville 的50岁民主党人 Daemien Williams 表示，他过去信任美国选举结果、现在不再信任，担心特朗普总统等共和党人会为保住权力采取干预手段，但他仍计划投票。俄克拉荷马州 Grove 的67岁共和党选民 Alan Curtis 则表示，他今年比往年更有信心，认为特朗普的强势表态能对选举官员形成威慑。
这项民调于10月8日至12日进行，距11月3日选举日不到一个月。美联社报道指出，调查期间正值特朗普政府推动扩大联邦对选举的权限，包括本月早些时候起诉加州官员、称其未妥善处理选民名册上被指为非公民者，并警告处理非公民选票的选举工作人员可能面临刑事调查与起诉；其政府同时表示无意派军方或移民执法人员巡逻投票站。民调共访问1,119名成年人，其中登记选民925人，样本取自 NORC 基于概率的 AmeriSpeak 固定样本组；全体成年人的抽样误差为正负3.9个百分点，登记选民为正负4.2个百分点。
AP-NORC Poll: Democrats' Confidence in Accurate Vote Count Falls to 55% From 75%, Republicans' Rises to 38%
A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that registered voters who identify as Democrats have lost faith in America's election results since the midterm elections four years ago: the share saying they have "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of confidence that votes will be counted accurately has dropped from 75% in 2022 to 55% this year. Republican voters' confidence has risen over the same period, from 26% to about 38%, though Republicans remain less likely than Democrats to express faith in the electoral process. Overall, slightly fewer than half of U.S. voters, 45%, express that level of confidence, down from 50% in 2022, while independents held steady at 34% in both years.
About 9 in 10 Democratic voters say the president attempting to influence U.S. elections is a "major problem," compared with about 2 in 10 Republican voters. About 7 in 10 Republican voters say people voting when they are ineligible is a "major problem," compared with 25% of Democratic voters. Majorities of voters from both parties say foreign governments trying to influence election outcomes, super intelligence-generated election misinformation, and states redrawing legislative districts to intentionally favor one party are major problems. Just 17% of registered voters were "extremely" or "very" confident the U.S. Supreme Court would handle a case related to the midterm elections in a fair and nonpartisan manner.
Voters described their views in partisan terms. Daemien Williams, a 50-year-old Democrat in Centreville, Illinois, said he used to trust U.S. election results but no longer does, worrying that President Donald Trump and other Republicans would try to interfere to hold onto power, though he still plans to vote. Alan Curtis, a 67-year-old Republican in Grove, Oklahoma, said he feels better about the process this year and sees Trump's public pressure as a deterrent to election officials.
The survey was conducted October 8-12, less than a month before the November 3 elections, as the Trump administration pursued a wide-ranging effort to expand federal authority over elections. Earlier this month, the administration filed a lawsuit against California officials claiming they did not adequately address alleged noncitizen voters on their rolls, and warned that election workers who process ballots from noncitizens could face criminal investigation and prosecution; the administration has said it has no plans to send the military or immigration agents to patrol polling places. The AP-NORC poll of 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, was conducted using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, and for registered voters plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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图片来源：美国一处提前投票中心外景资料图。照片：Edward Kimmel 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / An early voting center in the United States (file photo). Photo: Edward Kimmel, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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