跟进：美媒披露美以已制定中期选举后打击伊朗计划 伊朗军方警告反击将「更加猛烈」

据新华社10月22日电，美国《纽约时报》21日报道，美国和以色列两军已制定在美国中期选举结束后对伊朗实施新一轮打击的具体计划，意在以「短时间、高强度」的方式空袭伊朗全境，但美国总统特朗普尚未批准。报道称，拟议中的打击预计持续约三天，目标包括伊朗的能源基础设施、核设施以及导弹和无人机武器库。

报道称，美国国防部长赫格塞思本周在以色列与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会晤，相关计划是会谈内容之一。按报道说法，美方已不止一次走到发动打击的边缘，包括本月内曾几乎做好准备，但特朗普叫停了行动。白宫官员对《纽约时报》表示，不会就「可能存在、也可能不存在的军事计划」置评。报道同时指出，以色列定于10月27日举行议会选举，这让计划再生变数：若内塔尼亚胡败选并转为看守总理，在权力过渡期发动如此规模的打击将更加困难。

伊朗方面连日放话警告。伊朗议长顾问迈赫迪·穆罕默迪近日在社交媒体上表示，所谓在72小时内完成打击是「幻想」，伊朗的反击将「更加猛烈、更出人意料且和以往不同」，并称伊方已为反击做好周密计划。据新华社援引伊朗媒体22日报道，伊朗军队总司令哈塔米当天在视察一家作战型无人机生产中心时表示，伊朗军队已为包括非对称战争在内的各种情况做好装备准备，无人机能力达到「相对成熟水平」；报道称伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡以东已部署水雷和自动化控制系统，并密切监视敌方动向。此前，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令政治副手 Yadollah Javani 警告说，如果伊朗基础设施遭到攻击，伊朗可能将霍尔木兹海峡的海底互联网电缆、以及与美国及其盟友有关的资产列为反击目标。

本轮紧张局势的直接背景，是霍尔木兹海峡油轮接连起火受损与伊朗革命卫队采矿警告之后，沙特达曼港遇袭、胡塞武装与沙特互射导弹，地区对峙持续升级。

Follow-Up: US, Israeli Militaries Said to Have Drawn Up Post-Midterm Strike Plans on Iran; Tehran Warns of a "Stronger" Response

Xinhua reported on October 22 that, according to The New York Times (October 21), the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up concrete plans for a new round of strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterm elections, envisioning "short, high-intensity" air strikes across Iran — plans President Trump has not yet approved. The strikes would reportedly last about three days and target Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenals.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week, with the plans among the topics discussed. The report said the two sides have more than once come close to launching, including earlier this month when the militaries were almost ready, before Trump called it off. A White House official told the Times it would not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist." The report also noted that Israel's parliamentary election, set for October 27, adds uncertainty: if Netanyahu loses and becomes a caretaker prime minister, launching strikes of this scale during a transition would be harder.

Tehran has issued a string of warnings. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's parliament speaker, wrote on social media that talk of finishing strikes within 72 hours is a "fantasy," that Iran's response will be "more fierce, creative and different," and that strong planning has been put in place. Xinhua, citing Iranian media on October 22, reported that army commander Amir Hatami, visiting a combat-drone production center the same day, said Iran's armed forces are equipped for any scenario including asymmetric warfare and that its drone capability has reached a "relatively mature level"; Iran has reportedly deployed naval mines and automated control systems east of the Strait of Hormuz and is closely monitoring adversary movements. Earlier, Yadollah Javani, deputy for political affairs to the IRGC commander-in-chief, warned that if Iran's infrastructure is attacked, Tehran could target undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz and assets linked to the United States and its allies.

The immediate backdrop is an escalating regional standoff: tankers catching fire near the Strait of Hormuz, IRGC mining warnings, an attack on Saudi Arabia's Dammam port, and missile exchanges between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：美国国防部五角大楼航拍（资料图）。照片：mariordo59，CC BY-SA 2.0，经Wikimedia Commons。Photo: An aerial view of the Pentagon (file photo). Photo: mariordo59, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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