跟进：高盛警告美国楼市将进一步走弱 2027年独栋开工量预计仅87.5万套
纽约——高盛经济学家 Ronnie Walker 在给客户的报告中写道，美国房地产市场很可能还会进一步走弱才会趋于稳定。高盛预计，未来三个季度美国住宅投资将分别下降 2.5%、4% 和 1%；2027 年美国独栋住宅开工量仅为 87.5 万套，二手房销售预计为 390 万套——比疫情前的 2019 年低 26%。Walker 认为，这种长期偏弱的格局源于所谓的"锁定效应"：已拥有住房的人因手中抵押贷款利率极低，不愿出售现有住房并承担更高的借贷成本；而住房负担能力下降又进一步拖累新房建设。
这一判断正值 9 月住房数据全面走弱。美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周二公布，成屋签约销售指数环比下降 7.3%、同比下降 11.3%，跌至自 2001 年开始记录以来的历史最低水平（本站 10 月 20 日已报道）。商务部同日公布的数据显示，经季节性调整后的私人住宅年化开工量当月下降 5.2%，远差于市场预期的下降 0.4%；建筑许可数量下降 0.2%，市场共识预期为增长 2%；其中独栋住宅建筑许可仅为 84.5 万套，较 8 月下降 4%，创下 2023 年以来的最低水平。房屋建筑商信心也跌至 14 年来未见的低位。
NAR 首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 表示："由于抵押贷款利率快速上升，9 月份市场状况有所恶化。尽管就业增长和收入增加能够支撑购房需求，但住房负担能力受到抵押贷款利率变化的影响更大。"据 Mortgage News Daily 的数据，30 年期抵押贷款利率在 9 月的大部分时间都高于 7%，月底时约为 7.6%——五年前，这一利率还接近 3%。
Follow-Up: Goldman Sachs Warns U.S. Housing Will Weaken Further, Sees Just 875,000 Single-Family Starts in 2027
NEW YORK — Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote in a client note that the U.S. housing market will likely weaken further before it stabilizes. Goldman expects U.S. residential investment to fall 2.5%, 4% and 1% over the next three quarters; single-family starts of just 875,000 in 2027 and existing-home sales of 3.9 million — 26% below pre-pandemic 2019. Walker attributes the persistently soft market to the "lock-in effect": homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates are unwilling to sell and take on higher borrowing costs, while deteriorating affordability further drags on new construction.
The assessment comes as September housing data weakened across the board. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday that its pending home sales index fell 7.3% month over month and 11.3% year over year, hitting the lowest level since records began in 2001 (reported by GSM on Oct. 20). Commerce Department data showed privately owned housing starts, seasonally adjusted and annualized, fell 5.2% in the month, versus a market consensus of just a 0.4% decline; building permits fell 0.2% against expectations of a 2% gain; single-family permits came in at just 845,000 units, down 4% from August to the lowest since 2023. Homebuilder confidence has sunk to its lowest in 14 years.
"Market conditions deteriorated in September as mortgage rates rose rapidly," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Although job growth and rising incomes support housing demand, affordability is more heavily affected by changes in mortgage rates." According to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year mortgage rate spent most of September above 7% and stood at about 7.6% at month's end — versus nearly 3% five years ago.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：待售房屋标识（资料图）。照片：Rick Obst，CC BY 4.0，经Wikimedia Commons。Photo: A home-for-sale sign (file photo). Photo: Rick Obst, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
- 2026-10-20 13:57NAR：9月待完成房屋销售环比大跌7.3% 指数降至2001年有记录以来最低
- 2026-10-22 20:11跟进：高盛警告美国楼市将进一步走弱 2027年独栋开工量预计仅87.5万套本篇
