福克斯新闻新民调：德州联邦参议员选战佩斯顿与塔拉里科49%对49%打平
福克斯新闻10月21日公布的最新民调显示，在全美瞩目的德州联邦参议员选战中，民主党人James Talarico与共和党人Ken Paxton在可能选民中各获49%的支持率，陷入僵持。相比福克斯上一次民调中塔拉里科51%对49% 领先2个百分点，此次出现回落；民调分析称，变化主要来自佩斯顿在保守派、乡村选民、郊区女性以及初选中支持John Cornyn的选民中巩固了支持。
该民调于10月15日至19日进行，访问了2011名登记选民和1398名可能选民，可能选民误差为正负2.5个百分点，由民主党民调机构Beacon Research与共和党民调机构Shaw & Company联合执行。基本盘方面：塔拉里科在黑人选民（+65个百分点）、城市选民（+29）、30岁以下（+28）和大学学历女性（+23）中大幅领先；佩斯顿则在白人福音派（+52）、无大学学历白人男性（+32）、乡村选民（+21）和65岁以上（+18）中占优。关键的拉美裔选票正回流民主党：以64%对34%支持塔拉里科，也以29个百分点的优势支持民主党掌控参议院。党内忠诚度上，98%的民主党人支持塔拉里科，90%的共和党人支持佩斯顿，近三成非MAGA共和党人倒戈支持塔拉里科。
10月其他民调多显示胶着：休斯顿大学Hobby民调（10月18日）塔拉里科48%对46%；Marist（10月14日）47%对45%；UT/Texas Politics Project（10月13日）50%对47%；UMass Lowell（10月8日）45%对45%。德州提前投票正在进行，选举日为11月3日。
New Fox News Poll: Texas Senate Race Tied 49%-49% Between Paxton and Talarico
A new Fox News poll released October 21 shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each at 49% among likely voters in the closely watched Texas U.S. Senate race, a dead heat. Compared with the previous Fox poll, in which Talarico led 51% to 49%, support has slipped; poll analysts attribute the change mainly to Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed John Cornyn in the primary.
The poll was conducted October 15-19 among 2,011 registered voters and 1,398 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points among likely voters, and was conducted jointly by Democratic polling firm Beacon Research and Republican firm Shaw & Company. Among key groups, Talarico leads big with Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28) and college-educated women (+23); Paxton leads among white evangelicals (+52), white men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and voters 65 and older (+18). The key Latino vote is flowing back to Democrats: supporting Talarico 64% to 34%, and backing Democratic control of the Senate by 29 points. On party loyalty, 98% of Democrats support Talarico and 90% of Republicans support Paxton, while nearly three in ten non-MAGA Republicans have defected to Talarico.
Other October polls mostly show a close race: the University of Houston Hobby School poll (October 18) had Talarico ahead 48% to 46%; Marist (October 14) 47% to 45%; UT/Texas Politics Project (October 13) 50% to 47%; and UMass Lowell (October 8) tied at 45% each. Early voting is under way in Texas, and Election Day is November 3.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：德州议会大厦 / Texas State Capitol, Austin — Farragutful, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
