CNN参议院翻盘榜单：新罕布什尔州降至第9，Pappas民调占优，Sununu新广告与特朗普保持距离
CNN 10 月 22 日更新的参议院席位翻盘可能性榜单中，新罕布什尔州下降一位至第 9 名。CNN 说，民主党联邦众议员 Chris Pappas 在与共和党前参议员 John Sununu 的对决中，处境显得更为稳固。堪萨斯州与新罕布什尔州在本轮榜单中互换了位置，CNN 指出，这反映中西部地区整体竞争在最近几周加剧。
民调方面，新罕布什尔大学 9 月进行的一项民调显示，Pappas 领先 Sununu 8 个百分点；《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调则显示两人差距在误差范围内。同一项民调显示，特朗普在新罕布什尔州的支持率仅为 38%，CNN 认为这对 Pappas 有利。Sununu 本周发布了一则电视广告，与特朗普保持距离，广告中说：「我甚至从未见过他。」Pappas 一方则有多位高知名度民主党人助选，包括前副总统 Kamala Harris 即将到访；Harris 在 2024 年大选中曾以 3 个百分点的优势赢下新罕布什尔州。
CNN 表示，这份榜单综合了一线报道、与两党竞选策略人士的访谈，以及对筹款、民调与各州党派环境的分析，是当前时点的一个快照；距离 11 月 3 日投票日不到两周，排名仍可能变化。（GSM 据 CNN 报道）
CNN Senate Flip Rankings: New Hampshire Drops to No. 9 as Pappas Holds a Polling Edge and Sununu Distances Himself From Trump
New Hampshire moved down one spot to No. 9 in CNN's updated October 22 ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip. CNN said Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas appears to be on more stable ground in his contest against Republican former Sen. John Sununu. Kansas and New Hampshire switched spots on the list, which CNN said reflects the Midwest growing more competitive in recent weeks.
A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in September showed Pappas leading Sununu by 8 points, while a New York Times/Siena survey showed the race within the margin of error. The Times/Siena poll put President Donald Trump's approval rating in the state at just 38%, a factor CNN said is aiding Pappas. Sununu released a TV ad this week distancing himself from Trump, saying, "I've never even met the man." Pappas has embraced high-profile Democrats campaigning on his behalf, including an upcoming visit from former Vice President Kamala Harris, who won the state by 3 points in 2024.
CNN said the ranking is based on its reporting, conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, and analysis of fundraising, polling and the partisan environment, and is a snapshot that can still shift with less than two weeks to go before the November 3 election. (GSM, based on CNN reporting)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，CC BY 4.0，作者 Quintin Soloviev；新罕布什尔州议会大厦（Concord） / Photo: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0, by Quintin Soloviev; the New Hampshire State House in Concord
