CNN 更新参议院翻盘榜：北卡罗来纳州席位仍居榜首，库珀民调领先
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）10月22日更新“距离中期选举不到两周、最可能翻盘的十个参议院席位”榜单，北卡罗来纳州的席位连续居于榜首。民主党籍前州长罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）在民调中领先共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利（Michael Whatley）。据 AdImpact 数据，共和党团体在竞选最后两周仅为该席位预留250万美元广告投入，民主党方面则为1320万美元，显示共和党已收缩在该州的开支。
这份榜单基于 CNN 一线记者的报道，包括与各竞选团队策略师的访谈，并综合候选人筹款、民调数据与各州党派环境研判。CNN 同期民调显示，民主党在全国国会选区选民意向上领先共和党10个百分点；CNN 民调平均值显示，特朗普在全国成年人中的支持率为33%，生活成本压力，包括与伊朗战争带来的经济冲击，成为选民最关切的议题。
CNN 同时指出，民主党要在全国掀起“蓝色浪潮”仍远非十拿九稳：今年的参议院版图对共和党有利，特朗普2024年在榜单上多个竞争激烈的州都以两位数优势获胜，共和党正投入巨资保卫地盘。AdImpact 数据显示，榜单十个席位在最后两周的广告投入合计超过3亿美元。北卡罗来纳州这一由共和党参议员 Thom Tillis 退休留下的空缺席位，被视为决定参议院控制权归属的关键一战。
CNN Ranks North Carolina Senate Seat Most Likely to Flip as Cooper Leads in Polls
CNN updated its ranking of the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, less than two weeks before the midterm elections, on Oct. 22, with North Carolina once again atop the list. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is leading in polls over GOP candidate Michael Whatley. Republicans have pulled back on spending in the race, with GOP groups reserving only $2.5 million for the final two weeks of the campaign compared with $13.2 million from Democrats, according to AdImpact data.
The ranking is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, and its analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment. A new CNN poll found Democrats with a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters' choice in their own congressional district, while President Donald Trump's approval rating sits at 33% among U.S. adults in the CNN Poll of Polls average, with cost-of-living concerns, including the economic fallout from the war with Iran, weighing on voters.
CNN noted a Democratic “blue wave” is far from a sure bet: this year's Senate map favors Republicans, Trump won many of the most competitive states on the list by double digits in 2024, and more than $300 million in advertising is pouring into the 10 listed races over the final two weeks, according to AdImpact.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，Raleigh 的北卡罗来纳州立法大楼，作者 P. Hughes，CC BY 4.0 / Photo: Wikimedia Commons, North Carolina State Legislative Building in Raleigh, by P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0
