跟进：巴基斯坦陆军参谋长赴德黑兰斡旋未获突破：伊朗提出解除封锁与制裁等前提，美军中央司令部否认油轮触雷说法

据路透社等媒体报道，巴基斯坦陆军参谋长、陆军元帅 Asim Munir 周二到访德黑兰，与伊朗总统 Masoud Pezeshkian、议会议长 Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 等官员会面，试图推动美伊重启谈判。巴基斯坦今年以来一直在华盛顿与德黑兰之间扮演调停角色，此行带来了巴基斯坦与卡塔尔调停方拟就伊朗核计划与被冻结资产等问题寻找中间地带的新方案，据《新阿拉伯人报》（The New Arab）报道，该方案此前已得到美伊双方官员的积极回应。

但据 Foreign Exchanges 对当日报道的梳理，Munir 此行似乎空手而归：德黑兰方面传达的一致信息是，伊朗不信任美国会真诚谈判，除非美方先满足其前提条件、包括结束海上封锁与解除制裁，否则不会认真重返外交。伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araqchi）周一在与俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫的联合记者会上已表示，地区问题应通过外交解决，并指责美国是霍尔木兹海峡紧张与不安全的源头，同时呼吁地区国家建立不依赖外来力量的联合安全安排。

海峡局势方面，各方说法继续相左：伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称又有油轮在海峡南部触雷起火，而据 Newsquawk 转述，美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）发言人称伊朗关于水雷的说法不实。革命卫队还声称在海峡上空击落一架美国 MQ-9 无人机、为其所称的第 54 架，美方未在相关报道中证实这一说法。航运数据则显示海峡已近乎停摆：国际货币基金组织 PortWatch 记录 10 月 18 日仅有 4 艘船只通过海峡，而危机前的基线为每日约 85 艘。

油价方面，在周二早盘冲上每桶 111 美元上方的五个月高位后，布伦特原油回落，至周二 15 时 09 分（UTC）报每桶 107.09 美元、24 小时跌幅 1.04%。此前数据显示，过去两周经海峡的原油运输量已大幅下降，美国应急石油储备降至 1982 年以来最低水平，航运分析公司 Kpler 称两周内至少有 18 起针对船只的袭击被报告。

Pakistan's Army Chief Leaves Tehran Without a Breakthrough: Iran Sets Preconditions on the Blockade and Sanctions as U.S. Central Command Calls the Tanker Mine Claims False

Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, visited Tehran on Tuesday and met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as he sought to revive talks between the United States and Iran, according to Reuters and other reporting. Pakistan has played a key mediating role between Washington and Tehran this year, and Munir carried a new proposal from Pakistani and Qatari mediators aiming to find middle ground on Iran's nuclear program and its frozen assets; The New Arab reported that the proposal had drawn positive responses from U.S. and Iranian officials.

But Munir appears to have left Tehran empty-handed on Tuesday, according to Foreign Exchanges' roundup of the day's reporting: the common message from Iranian officials was that Tehran does not trust the United States to negotiate in good faith and will not seriously re-engage in diplomacy unless Washington first meets its preconditions, including ending its naval blockade and lifting sanctions. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had said at a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday that regional issues should be resolved through diplomacy, blamed the United States for insecurity and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and called for a joint regional security arrangement without foreign forces.

Accounts of the strait itself continued to diverge: Iran's Revolutionary Guards said more tankers had struck mines and caught fire in the southern strait, while a U.S. Central Command spokesman said Iran's mine claims were false, according to Newsquawk as cited in the Straits Daily brief. The Guards also claimed to have shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone over the strait, described as its 54th such shootdown, with no U.S. military corroboration in the reporting. Shipping data showed the waterway nearly shut: IMF PortWatch recorded just 4 vessel transits on October 18, against a pre-crisis baseline of about 85 per day.

In oil markets, Brent crude stood at $107.09 a barrel as of 15:09 UTC on Tuesday, down 1.04% over 24 hours, after earlier touching a five-month high above $111. Crude flows through the strait have fallen sharply over the past two weeks, U.S. emergency oil reserves have dropped to their lowest since 1982, and analytics firm Kpler has reported at least 18 attacks on vessels in the past two weeks.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：霍尔木兹海峡卫星资料图。图：美国国家航空航天局（NASA，STS-4 任务拍摄），公共领域，经维基共享资源。 / File satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz. Image by NASA (STS-4 mission), public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

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