财报前瞻：特斯拉三季度业绩周三盘后公布：预期每股收益约0.45美元、营收约279亿美元，交付48.65万辆已先行披露
特斯拉公司（Tesla, Inc.）定于当地时间周三（10月21日）美股盘后公布2026年第三季度业绩，并于美东时间下午5时30分举行问答网络直播。财报数据尚未公布：据Zacks与FactSet汇总的分析师预期，市场预期特斯拉三季度每股收益约0.44至0.45美元、营收约278亿至279.4亿美元，其中FactSet预期为每股0.45美元、营收279.35亿美元；Zacks一致预期为每股0.44美元、营收278亿美元，该预期在过去30天内下调了0.03美元，对应每股收益同比下降约12%、营收同比下降约1%。
销量数据已先行披露：特斯拉三季度共交付486,532辆汽车，环比增长1.3%、同比下降2.1%，高于特斯拉汇总的24位分析师一致预期461,974辆；当季产量为464,391辆，交付量较产量多出22,141辆。其中Model 3与Model Y交付478,237辆，其他车型（Model S、Model X、Cybertruck与Semi）交付8,295辆、同比下降约48%。去年同期交付量为创纪录的497,099辆，当时美国联邦7,500美元电动车税收抵免于2025年9月30日到期，需求被提前释放。
储能业务方面，特斯拉三季度储能产品部署量为13.7吉瓦时，同比增长9.6%，但低于分析师预期的约15.9吉瓦时，也低于2025年第四季度14.2吉瓦时的纪录水平。中国生产的Model 3与Model Y（含出口）9月销量同比增长5%，欧洲市场销售回暖对三季度交付形成支撑。
市场关注点集中在汽车业务利润率、自由现金流与资本开支，以及软件订阅、自动驾驶与Cybercab等后续车型的进展。二季度特斯拉每股收益为0.33美元，低于预期的0.50美元，营收为282.4亿美元；过去四个季度，特斯拉两次超出、两次低于盈利预期，平均盈利意外为负3.7%。特斯拉与Meta同在周三盘后公布三季度业绩，Netflix已于周二盘后率先发布。
Earnings Preview: Tesla to Report Third-Quarter Results After Wednesday's Close, With Analysts Expecting EPS of About $0.45 on Revenue of About $27.9 Billion After Deliveries of 486,532 Were Disclosed
Tesla, Inc. is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, October 21, followed by a question-and-answer webcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The results have not yet been published. According to estimates compiled by Zacks and FactSet, analysts expect earnings of about $0.44 to $0.45 a share on revenue of about $27.8 billion to $27.94 billion; FactSet's consensus is $0.45 a share on revenue of $27.935 billion, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is $0.44 a share on $27.8 billion, down 3 cents over the past 30 days and implying a 12% year-over-year earnings decline on a roughly 1% revenue decline.
The volume figures are already public: Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, up 1.3% sequentially but down 2.1% from a year earlier, and well above the 461,974 consensus Tesla compiled from 24 analysts. The company built 464,391 vehicles, delivering 22,141 more than it produced. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 478,237 deliveries, while other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck and Semi) fell about 48% to 8,295. The year-ago quarter's record 497,099 deliveries were flattered by a rush to buy before the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit expired on September 30, 2025.
In energy storage, Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh in the quarter, up 9.6% from 12.5 GWh a year earlier but below the roughly 15.9 GWh analysts expected and below the 14.2 GWh record set in the fourth quarter of 2025. Sales of China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, including exports, rose 5% year over year in September, and European sales recovered during the quarter.
Investors will focus on automotive margins, free cash flow and capital spending, along with software subscriptions, autonomous driving and future models such as Cybercab. In the second quarter, Tesla earned $0.33 a share, missing the $0.50 consensus, on revenue of $28.24 billion; over the trailing four quarters it has beaten estimates twice and missed twice. Tesla and Meta Platforms both report after Wednesday's close, following Netflix's release on Tuesday evening.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的超级工厂（2022年建设中）资料图。照片：Larry D. Moore 摄，CC BY 4.0，经维基共享资源。 / File photo: Tesla Gigafactory Texas under construction in Austin, Texas (2022). Photo by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
- 2026-10-21 00:59财报前瞻：特斯拉三季度业绩周三盘后公布：预期每股收益约0.45美元、营收约279亿美元，交付48.65万辆已先行披露本篇
- 2026-10-21 14:01特斯拉三季度营收280.5亿美元基本持平：营业利润降56%至7.18亿美元 FSD订阅同比增67%至174万
- 2026-10-21 22:29跟进：特斯拉电话会：全年资本开支指引由250亿美元下调至约200亿美元 奥斯汀Cybercab车队较9月上线扩大约十倍
