财报前瞻：Meta三季度业绩周三盘后公布：预期营收约633亿美元增逾两成，资本开支指引与Muse AI进展受关注

Meta公司（Meta Platforms, Inc.）定于当地时间周三（10月21日）美股盘后公布2026年第三季度业绩，并于美东时间下午4时30分举行业绩电话会。财报数据尚未公布：分析师普遍预期每股收益约6.6至6.77美元，其中FactSet预期为6.77美元；营收预期约633亿美元，同比增长约24%。期权市场定价显示，财报后Meta股价可能出现约12%的波动；该股上周五收于709.33美元，此后一周多在740至760美元区间交易。

同比口径需要留意：去年三季度，Meta因与《大而美法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）相关的一笔159亿美元一次性非现金所得税费用，报告每股收益仅为1.05美元；公司称剔除该费用后每股收益为7.25美元，以此计算，FactSet的6.77美元预期实际对应同比下降约7%。今年二季度，Meta营收为608亿美元，每股收益6.18美元，低于预期的7.19美元。

分行观点方面，美国银行分析师Justin Post维持买入评级与810美元目标价，预期三季度营收638亿美元、高于一致预期，认为人工智能驱动的广告增长将推动营收超预期；他同时提示，一笔约100亿美元、与州检察长相关的法律和解费用可能压低当季每股收益口径（其预测为3.79美元）。德意志银行分析师Benjamin Black将三季度营收预期上调至637亿美元、维持买入评级与820美元目标价。Bernstein分析师Mark Shmulik预期营收640.6亿美元、同比增长约25%。

看点还包括「应用家族」日活跃用户（今年6月为36亿）、Reality Labs的表现，以及2026年资本开支指引是否调整：公司现行指引为1,300亿至1,450亿美元，接近上年水平的两倍。Meta于9月推出Muse AI，市场关注其用户采用与变现进展。

Earnings Preview: Meta to Report Third-Quarter Results After Wednesday's Close, With Revenue Expected Near $63.3 Billion, Up More Than 20%, as the Capex Outlook and Muse AI Draw Focus

Meta Platforms, Inc. is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, October 21, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The results have not yet been published. Analysts expect earnings of about $6.6 to $6.77 a share, with FactSet at $6.77, on revenue of about $63.3 billion, up roughly 24% from a year earlier. Options pricing implies a post-earnings move of about 12%; the stock closed at $709.33 on Friday, October 16, and traded in the $740 to $760 range in the days that followed.

The year-ago comparison is distorted: Meta's third-quarter 2025 results included a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of $15.9 billion linked to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which held reported earnings to $1.05 a share; excluding the charge, Meta said diluted earnings would have been $7.25, against which FactSet's $6.77 estimate is about 7% lower. In the second quarter of 2026, Meta reported revenue of $60.8 billion and earnings of $6.18 a share, missing the $7.19 consensus.

Among bank previews, Bank of America's Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating and an $810 price target, forecasting third-quarter revenue of $63.8 billion, above consensus, on AI-driven advertising growth; he also flagged a possible one-time legal settlement charge of about $10 billion linked to state attorneys general, putting his earnings estimate at $3.79. Deutsche Bank's Benjamin Black raised his revenue estimate to $63.7 billion with a Buy rating and an $820 target. Bernstein's Mark Shmulik expects revenue of $64.06 billion, about 25% higher than a year earlier.

Other points of focus include Family Daily Active People, which stood at 3.60 billion in June 2026, the performance of Reality Labs, and any change to 2026 capital expenditure guidance, currently $130 billion to $145 billion, nearly double the prior year. Meta launched Muse AI in September, and investors will look for updates on adoption and monetization.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：Meta位于加州门洛帕克的总部园区航拍资料图。照片：InvadingInvader 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经维基共享资源。 / File photo: Aerial view of Meta's headquarters campus in Menlo Park, California. Photo by InvadingInvader, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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