日本银行或上调下一财年通胀展望：10月30日会议料按兵不动，12月仍可能加息

据路透社10月20日报道，四名熟悉日本银行想法的消息人士称，日本银行可能在本月底发布的展望中上调下一财年的通胀预测，原因是油价上涨对物价的传导压力比预期更持久。日本银行上月刚刚加息，消息人士称，在10月30日结束的为期两天政策会议上，央行预计维持利率不变，除非日元再度贬值、推高进口成本与更广泛通胀。

日本银行在7月的预测中预计，截至2027年3月财年的核心消费者通胀为2.5%，下一财年放缓至2.4%，其假设是最初一轮燃料成本冲击的传导将从明年下半年起减弱。消息人士称，在本月底随政策会议发布的季度报告中，政策委员会可能小幅上调2027财年的核心通胀预测，以反映近期原油价格再度上涨的传导；调整幅度预计不大，也没有迹象显示能源冲击正引发工资与物价螺旋式上涨的危险二次效应。

一名消息人士说：「消费者价格涨幅可能在更长时间内保持高位，不过基础通胀没有大的变化。」另一名消息人士在谈到下一次加息时点时说：「通胀压力存在，但没有跳升，所以没有理由匆忙行动。」消息人士称，央行在季度报告中可能继续强调通胀上行风险，为最早12月再加息留出空间。上述消息人士因未获授权对媒体发言而要求匿名，日本银行未立即回应路透社的置评请求。（GSM 据路透社报道）

Bank of Japan May Raise Next Fiscal Year's Inflation Forecast: Rates Expected Steady on October 30, December Hike Still Possible

The Bank of Japan may raise its inflation outlook for the next fiscal year in forecasts due this month, as rising oil prices exert longer-than-expected price pressures on the economy, Reuters reported on October 20, citing four sources familiar with the central bank's thinking. Having just raised interest rates last month, the BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at the two-day policy meeting ending on October 30, unless the yen renews its slide, lifting import costs and broader inflation, the sources said.

In forecasts made in July, the BOJ projected core consumer inflation of 2.5 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2027, before slowing to 2.4 percent the following year, assuming the pass-through of the initial spike in fuel costs would moderate from the latter half of next year. The sources said the board may slightly revise up its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2027 in the quarterly report due after this month's meeting, to reflect the pass-through from the recent, renewed spike in crude oil prices. Any revision is expected to be minor, with little sign that dangerous second-round effects, in which the energy shock triggers a spiral of sharp wage and price rises, are becoming embedded in the economy.

"Consumer price growth may stay elevated for longer than expected, though there's no big change in underlying inflation," one source said, a view echoed by two other sources. "Inflation pressures exist but haven't jumped, so there's little reason to rush," another source said on the timing of the next rate hike. The sources said the central bank will likely maintain its focus on mounting inflationary risks in the quarterly report, leaving scope for another rate hike as soon as December. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly, and the BOJ was not immediately available for comment. (GSM, based on Reuters reporting)

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：位于东京日本桥的日本银行总部本馆。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，公共领域。Photo: The Bank of Japan's head office main building in Nihonbashi, Tokyo. Via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

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