印度央行力守卢比95关口 外汇储备自9月高点减少近600亿美元、降至7,260亿美元
孟买——据路透社报道，印度卢比周一预计在1美元兑94.92至94.98卢比区间开盘，上周五收于94.96。受高油价压力，卢比预计在开盘时承压，而印度储备银行的美元抛售预计将支撑卢比，使其守在交易员眼中该行的「软防线」附近。
近几个交易日，卢比一直在1美元兑95卢比关口附近波动：一度短暂升破该水平，却难以站稳；每次跌破该水平又屡屡遇到阻力。一名银行外汇交易员表示，这一走势显示印度储备银行可能正在抛售美元，以限制卢比在95水平以外的弱势，使该水平成为卢比近期的关键支撑。卢比上周录得近四年来的最佳单周表现，涨幅约2%，受该行一连串扶持措施与在现货市场反复抛售美元提振。印度储备银行已提高进口商对冲未来经常账户付款的成本，提高银行为某些交易购买外汇的成本，并开设专门窗口、直接从外汇储备中向国有石油公司供应美元。
该行加大力度的扶持及买卖掉期操作已反映在外汇储备上：印度外汇储备自9月第一周创下历史高点以来已减少近600亿美元，至10月9日降至7,260亿美元。
油价仍是卢比的主要压力点。布伦特原油上周五一度升破每桶110美元，为5月以来首次；周一回落至约108美元。此前美国总统特朗普豁免了对俄罗斯的新制裁与关税，可能为俄罗斯燃料出口增加铺平道路。分析人士普遍认为，除非油价回落，印度储备银行扶持卢比的努力能走多远仍有限度。
（GSM 据路透社报道）
India's Central Bank Defends the Rupee Near 95 as Reserves Fall by Nearly $60 Billion From September's Record to $726 Billion
Mumbai — The Indian rupee was expected to open in a 94.92 to 94.98 range per dollar on Monday, having settled at 94.96 on Friday, according to Reuters. The rupee was likely to be under pressure from high oil prices at Monday's open, with the central bank's dollar sales expected to support the currency and keep it near what traders perceive to be the central bank's soft defence line.
The rupee has oscillated around the 95-per-dollar mark in recent sessions, briefly strengthening past the level before struggling to sustain it; subsequent declines past that level have repeatedly met resistance. The pattern suggests the Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to limit weakness past the 95 level, making it an important near-term support, a currency trader at a bank said. The rupee last week posted its best weekly performance in nearly four years, gaining about 2%, buoyed by the RBI's measures to support the currency and repeated dollar sales in the spot market. The RBI has made it costlier for importers to hedge future current-account payments, raised the cost for banks of buying foreign currency for certain transactions, and opened a dedicated window to supply state-run oil companies with dollars directly from its foreign-exchange reserves.
The central bank's stepped-up defence of the rupee, alongside sell/buy swaps, is reflected in foreign exchange reserves: the country's reserves have shed nearly $60 billion since hitting an all-time high in the first week of September, falling to $726 billion through October 9.
Oil remains a key pressure point. Brent crude briefly climbed above $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May; prices dipped on Monday to around $108 after US President Donald Trump waived new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on goods from Russia, potentially paving the way for increased Russian fuel exports. There is broad consensus among analysts and investors that the RBI's efforts to support the rupee will go only so far unless oil prices retreat.
(GSM, via Reuters)
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图片来源：图：印度2,000卢比纸币（资料图）。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，Ravi Dwivedi 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0 授权 / Photo: An Indian 2,000-rupee banknote (file photo). Source: Wikimedia Commons, by Ravi Dwivedi, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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